Would you take a 2018 Draft QB over Mitchell Trubisky?

If you were given the choice to trade Mitchell Trubisky for the number one overall pick, would you do it?

You wake up in the middle of the night and poof you are the Chicago Bears General Manager. Your phone is ringing off of the hook. It is the Cleveland Browns. They are offering the number overall pick for Mitchell Trubisky straight up. You are now staring at any quarterback in this particular draft class, plus maintaining the eight overall pick this year. Would you pull the trigger? Which quarterback would you choose? Let’s take a look.

Josh Allen

It would be tough to argue that Allen does not have a higher ceiling than Mitchell Trubisky. However, it would be a much tougher task to argue that Allen is a safer pick in the top five than Trubisky. Yes, that even includes the low number of starts that hung over Trubisky.

Allen only started two seasons and he started them at Wyoming. Allen also never eclipsed a 60% completion percentage. His career high sat at 56%. Trubisky completed 68% of his passes in his last season. Trubisky also had almost twice as high of a TD:INT rate, 3.86 to 2.21. Trubisky takes less sacks, is more decisive, takes care of the ball better and produces with the ball more. This is a no brainer. You take Trubisky 100 out of 100 times.

Baker Mayfield

Statistically, Mayfield is going to trump Mitchell Trubisky. He has multiple years of success, a higher completion rate and a Heisman trophy that does not hurt his case. However, he is essentially a slightly lesser version of Trubisky.

Both played in an offense built around getting the ball out of their hands quick. Mayfield did it at a slightly higher rate and for a bit more success. He also had better play makers and played in higher tempo offenses.

Speaking of his offense, he also had a better offensive scheme to work from. Trubisky has better arm strength, and while stats may tell you Mayfield is more accurate, it is tough to argue that with similar supporting casts, Trubisky cannot go throw for throw with Mayfield. In terms of throwing with anticipation and leading receivers into yards, Trubisky could even attempt throws that Mayfield may not. Teams interested in Baker Mayfield will be the same teams who missed out on Trubisky last year and value that style.

Josh Rosen

Rosen has more experience and a higher perigee coming out of college. His floor as a whole is most likely higher than Trubisky. However, the ceiling of Trubisky is likely higher than Rosen.

If Trubisky were coming out this season, the two would likely be highly debated. Trubisky is a better athlete, and handles pressure better. However, Rosen notices pressure faster than Trubisky. It would be an interesting. The fact of the matter is that they would likely come out with similar grades. Given that a bird in the hand is better than one in the bush, the tie will go to Trubisky.

Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson is a high risk, high reward bet. A lot of people question his ability to be a pocket passer, and it concerns teams enough to kick him out of the top ten. However, in terms of processing, and manipulating defenders while maintaining poise in the pocket, he is much better than Michael Vick at this point.

In terms of extending plays with his leg to pass the football and set up bigger passing plays rather than running plays is also a huge factor that puts him ahead of Michael Vick as a prospect.

Real concerns come with Jackson having consistent accuracy to all levels of the field. The accuracy comes and goes, and passes tend to sail on him due to a heavy front foot. He also has a slender frame, that can scare teams.

While his upside, and fit with all of these new and quick play makers would be great. His frame and accuracy make it a tough sell. Trubisky has shown to be a much more accurate quarterback, and is not a bad athlete. The ceiling of Jackson skies above Trubisky, but the floor is not worth a straight up trade.

Sam Darnold

The big draw with Sam Darnold is that while he has more experience than Trubisky, he is also almost three years younger than Trubisky. Darnold will be 20 when gets drafted and 21 by the start of his first NFL season.

Darnold has an uncanny ability to sense pressure and react and it. It also shows in his ability to anticipate and quickly read and react to defensive coverages.

Darnold turns the ball over a lot. Some of his interceptions can be chalked up to his lack of skill players. Darnold would throw timing routes and the receiver was not on time. However, he carries the ball away from his body while he moves away from traffic and that does lead to fumbles.

Darnold can easily soar over Trubisky in terms of ceiling. However, the Bears would have to factor in that starting him next season would still be similar to starting Trubisky last season. Would they want to keep Mike Glennon just in case in this scenario?

Verdict

The fact of the matter is that the Bears built this team around Trubisky, so the idea is not worth looking into. However, if he were a quarterback entering the draft at this point, he would likely be the second or third rated prospect. Thoughts?

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