Chicago Bears: Should Mel Kiper Jr.’s First-Round Prediction Be Trusted?

ESPN football analyst Mel Kiper Jr. is arguably the most recognized analyst when it comes to his annual mock drafts for the NFL. Having been in this line of work for over 30 years, Kiper is the one many football fans flock to when it comes to finding out what their favorite team plans to do leading up to the NFL Draft. Although Kiper’s information regarding NFL prospects is insightful, it should never be taken too seriously, especially when it comes to the Chicago Bears.

Over the past five years, Kiper’s final first-round mock draft predictions for the Bears have been off the mark four times. In 2013, Kiper said that Chicago would select Heisman Trophy finalist Manti Te’o in the first round, but Kyle Long was the Bears’ choice. Iowa offensive tackle Brandon Scherff was Kiper’s likely choice for Chicago in 2015, however Kevin White was the one holding a Bears jersey with the commissioner. Kiper didn’t think that Chicago would trade up to the No. 9 spot in 2016 to snag Leonard Floyd, instead of staying at No. 11 to draft Shaq Lawson (who went to the Buffalo Bills at No. 19 overall). And no one in the world would’ve guessed that Chicago had the guts to trade up for the second year in a row, only to select Mitchell Trubisky in 2017 (Kiper’s guess was Solomon Thomas). The only one Kiper was correct on was the Bears’ 2014 selection of Kyle Fuller.

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Although Kiper hasn’t unveiled his final mock draft for 2018, in his most recent one, he has Chicago going after Notre Dame offensive guard Quenton Nelson. Looking at what the Bears have done in free agency thus far, it’s hard not to agree with Kiper’s prediction. Chicago did cut ties with Pro Bowl guard Josh Sitton, leaving a big hole on the Bears’ starting offensive line. Nelson, the draft’s highest-rated guard, would be the most suitable replacement.

Furthermore, general manager Ryan Pace did add some more key pieces to the roster. The biggest piece being wide receiver Allen Robinson. But, Pace didn’t stop there and also added wide receiver Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton, giving Trubisky better weapons to throw to in the passing game.

On the defensive side of the ball, Chicago let go of linebackers Pernell McPhee and Jerrell Freeman, but retained Sam Acho and John Timu. They also signed former San Francisco 49er Aaron Lynch. In the secondary, the Bears re-signed three of their cornerbacks: Fuller, Prince Amukamara, and Marcus Cooper Sr.

With all of this offseason work, Chicago has met some of their needs heading into the 2018 regular season, and have changed many analysts’ first-round prediction. Having Robinson and Gabriel on the roster lessens the chance of the Bears targeting Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Also, bringing back their trio of cornerbacks gives the indication that Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward won’t be on Chicago’s draft board. However, inside linebacker is still a necessity. This is why Kiper’s pick of Nelson being the Bears’ first-round choice isn’t a slam dunk.

Some are saying that Virginia Tech inside linebacker Tremaine Edmunds will be Chicago’s first-round choice. And just like the prediction of Nelson, this pick makes sense as well. As mentioned before, the sure tackler Freeman is no longer on the team, and the Bears could definitely use some talent to fill that void. Edmunds would also potentially be a part of a young dynamic linebacker corps, along with Floyd and Danny Trevathan.

Kiper does make plenty of sense with his prediction of Nelson being the eighth-overall pick the draft. But, his recent history of making choices for the Bears shouldn’t settle well with fans. So, we’ll have to keep an eye out for his next mock draft leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft and see if anything changes. Even if it does, we should take his prediction with a grain of salt, and wait for April 26 to see what will really happen with the Bears and their eight-overall pick.

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