Chicago Bears Should Not Trade Jordan Howard

Trading Jordan Howard would be a huge mistake for the Chicago Bears.

All you seem to hear now days is how Jordan Howard doesn’t fit Matt Nagy‘s system. It comes from just about every corner of the blog-o-sphere. He can’t catch. He’s shaky in the passing game. He’s not shifty enough. However, the simple fact is that he does fit the overall scheme. Trading him would greatly hurt the Chicago Bears chances in 2018.

Dropping Passes:

Before we talk about how Howard fits Matt Nagy’s scheme, let’s deal with the criticism that is often thrown his way. “He can’t catch!” “He drops too many passes!” “You can’t throw a screen pass to him because you can’t be sure he’ll catch it!”

Yes, Jordan Howard does have an issue with drops. He had a 14.6% career drop rate according to Erik Lambert, but hold on a minute. He’s caught passes from Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, and Mitch Trubisky. There has been no consistency for him to develop his skill or rapport. He does need to improve, but he needs to be given an opportunity to grow and improve as well.

What is helpful is that this is a skill that can be developed. We’re not talking about ball carrier vision or instinct which can’t really be taught. We’re talking about him spending time with the JUGS machine and with the wide receivers group to improve his catching ability. It can be done and some players in NFL history have improved glaring holes in their game to become great players.

What He Does Well:

Many people, however, forget that Nagy’s offense has a zone scheme for it’s running attack. (This is the same scheme that Howard has been running for the last two seasons) As a result, they become scared about his fit. The thing is that we need to stop looking at what he doesn’t do well, and start looking at what he excels at.

It seems like all anyone wants to do is focus on is his catching ability. The issue is that this hides his true value to the offense and, consequently, makes him look like an expendable spare part that doesn’t quite fit. The truth is far different however.

Howard’s true skill is in the things that can’t really be taught. His ball carrier vision is top rate. His instinct and ability to time and hit the hole are first class. He protects the ball well and his ability to pick up yards after contact is elite. No, he won’t kill you with speed, but his ability to keep the chains moving will ensure that our West Coast Offense won’t often be facing its arch-nemesis… third and long.

How does he fit:

Howard will give Nagy and Mark Helfrich a player who the defense has to constantly worry about. Consequently, the defense will not be able to risk un-stacking the box. As soon as they decide to drop into Nickel or Dime consistently, then the Chicago Bears will respond with a heavy dose of Howard zone runs up the middle.

However, if they stay in base packages to attempt to stop Howard, they’ll leave themselves shorthanded or one-on-one against our receiving Corps which, as long as it’s healthy, should scare a number of Defensive Coordinators in this league. This is the kind of pick your poison dimension that modern offenses bring to the table, and it’s exciting to see it here in Chicago.

Howard will bring a sense of balance to the offense. No longer can you play the Bears in base defenses alone. His presence will help to ensure that the Bears can maximize the return on their investments. Allen Robinson, Cameron Meredith, Trey Burton, and Tarik Cohen will all benefit from him being in the backfield. That’s not something that you just toss away like so much old newspaper. It’s also why I don’t believe that Nagy or Ryan Pace are looking to trade him despite the incessant rumors.

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The Helfrich Factor:

If you go back and watch Helfrich’s offenses during his tenure at Oregon, you’ll quickly notice how often he runs two backs either in the backfield or with one split out wide. It is entirely possible that the Bears will run some very similar sets. It’s a given that there will be a lot of shotgun formations. You will likely see a lot of Howard and Cohen in the backfield together or with Cohen in the slot.

Again, this kind of formation will help to ensure that defenses must read and react instead of running downhill. It will cause them to pause. That allows the blockers can get a step on the defender to the point of attack. It will give the receivers in the intermediate and short passing game a larger window. Trubisky will also benefit from pre snap reads as well as those larger windows.

All of this is possible because of Howard’s immense threat as a ball carrier, not his ability as a receiver. He’s vital, not because he will become a good receiver (though he might become one), but because he forces defenses to account for him because of what he is currently. That value, to the offense as a whole, is what makes him truly untouchable. Unless Barkley falls to the #8, and even then, the Bears offense is best served by having #24 operating the zone run scheme and scaring defensive coordinators into mismatches on the outside.

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