Is Anthony Miller’s age an actual concern?

Is the breakout age and the idea of coming into the NFL an older prospect a factor that could hinder Anthony Miller?

One of the bigger themes to take away from the Chicago Bears 2018 draft was that this team is preparing to compete right now. They took the ready-made Roquan Smith over the high upside bet in Tremaine Edmunds. They traded a future second-round pick for an extra second round pick to take Anthony Miller.

In Anthony Miller, they again invested in the player more ready to step in next season than any bet for upside. One of the knocks on Miller, size aside, is his age. It is funny, in the NBA age is one of the biggest determining factors in draft status. The senior who tears up the NCAA tournament never goes as high as some think and never quite lives up to his college career.

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However, in the NFL, the age of these prospects is not factored in as much. It probably should be. For instance, the Baltimore Ravens selected Hayden Hurst, who will be 25 during his rookie season. D.J. Moore will be 21 for the Carolina Panthers. Doesn’t Moore seem like a much better bet?

Anthony Miller is coming into the NFL at age 23 and will be 24 during the season. There are a couple of ways to look at why his age may be concerning. His second contract being at age 28 is going to be an interesting negotiation.

However, a bigger worry than that is past history does show us that breakout age and the age in which you enter the NFL does typically have a higher bust rate than boom.

Age Drafted

Based on recent players drafted who will finish their rookie season at age 24, the odds are against Miller. Since 2001, second round picks in Millers age range at wide receiver include Quincy Morgan, Donny Avery, Reggie Brown, Bethel Johnson, Limas Sweed and Ryan Broyles.

Including first round picks, that list extends to Rod Gardner, Javon Walker, Daniel Graham, Roddy White, Robert Meachem, Kevin White, and Josh Doctson. Interesting to see White compiled in a group where Roddy White clearly stands out as an outlier. Walker had two good seasons and Doctson we will see, but it is not encouraging. Even looking down the list of later round players, names do not stand out when starting their NFL career that late.

Breakout age

This could be correlated to break out age. Breakout age is an interesting study because it determines at what age a player is a dominating factor in his team’s particular offense. At what age are you dominating opponents age 18-20 to the point where the offense has to run through you? If you are at a dominant level at age 18 it is more impressive than 24. Understandable, right?

While Anthony Miller took a path less traveled to the Division One and the NFL ranks, his breakout age was 21.9. That puts him in the 17th percentile amongst all drafted wide receivers and does limit his ceiling. He was not dominating in college football until he was physically and mentally more mature than most of his competition. This is an advantage he does not have in the NFL.

However, his college dominator rating and athletic scores correlate him strongest to Victor Cruz. We all know Cruz took a different path to the NFL as well, and like Miller broke out late. However, the manner in which he dominated plus his athletic attributes to overcome his size gave him that lane to the NFL. It is worth noting that the Chicago Bears did try Cruz in the slot role with the team last season. Is this what Pace is seeing from Miller?

It was not expected to find Cruz and White in this exercise but in someway maybe Ryan Pace has a type for the older wide receiver, and he does not know it. Still, the Cruz comparison for Miller is more intriguing than White and fits stylistically in what the team likely hoped to get last season from Cruz and this season from Miller. Younger Cruz defied the odds to the point where the Bears gave him a chance off of a torn Achilles. Can Miller have that same success early into his career?