Fair or Foul: 4,000 yards for Mitchell Trubisky in 2018

Can Mitchell Trubisky eclipse 4,000 yards in his second season?

The Chicago Bears were the winners of the offseason and one of the teams a lot of people are very high on coming into the season. Mitchell Trubisky enters year two and while his entire offense, from scheme to coaches to players has been revamped. the overwhelming majority sees the offense as a whole to be upgraded.

Mike Clay of ESPN.com appears to agree. He does the fantasy projections for the site. The current yearly projection for Mitchell Trubisky has him throwing for 3,951 yards in 2018.

That would be an increase of 1,758 yards from the season prior. Talk about a step up. Still, the question does stand as to whether or not these projections are a bit optimistic or not. So, are the high expectations fair or foul?

Historically

Historically, this would put Trubisky in a bit of rare air. Since 2000, he would have the fourth most passing yards in a single season by a second-year player if he were to hit 4,000 passing yards.

There are a couple of things to take away from this small list.

Records, interceptions and Defenses

When thinking of Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston and Derek Carr, a lot of people could assume that some of their statistics came due to playing in high scoring games.

All three have had gun slinger adages tied to them, and none of the teams were known for defensive football prior to the Jaguars of last season. So, it would make sense for these three names to stand out in the past 18 years due to their extenuating circumstances.

The 2015 Jaguars did fit the bill and Bortles stats could be correlated to these situations. Their defense ranked 26th overall and 31st against the pass. Bortles threw 18 interceptions. The Jaguars finished their season 5-11.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished 9-7 and with a number 13 defense. However, Winston did throw 18 interceptions that year and had the highest INT rate of the group. This could equal having to throw for a plethora of yards while still having an average defense.

Speaking of average, the Oakland Raiders defense in 2015 was just that, ranking 16th in the NFL. Carr finished 7-9 that year but had the best touchdown to interception ratio at 32 to 13.

You could argue that the Chicago Bears defense of 2018 is better than the 2015 Raiders and Carr had the least of these three quarterbacks in terms of yardage production. However, Carr is the player to look to when establishing a precedent for Trubisky.

Game Flow

Another note that stands out from that stat is how recent these events were. All three have come in the past three season and this search went over a 17 year period. That is because this is the way that football is moving.

Did anyone watch the Super Bowl last season?

Play action, quick passes, skill players in space. This equals a safer game, but also an aesthetically pleasing game. Of course, unless you love power, and defense between the tackles.

The fact of the matter is that teams are making things easier for their quarterbacks and their quarterbacks are thriving at a younger age.

Carson Wentz and Jared Goff

Take Carson Wentz and Jared Goff for example. While neither lived up to the projection set upon Trubisky, both should have and five quarterbacks in the past three years should have hit this threshold.

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We all know the story of Wentz. Had he not tore his ACL and stayed pat at his average per game he would have broke 4,000 yards at 4,056. Goff also missed one game and still threw for 3,804 yards so you tend to think he would have broken that mark with a full season as well.

The Goff comparison

Trubisky seems to be getting Goff comparisons like crazy recently. It does make sense. The second-year quarterback goes from the 1980’s head coaching style straight into the future with a young and promising offensive-minded head coach with NFL connections.

The established defensive coordinator on the other side, the addition of major weapons, it is an easy comparison to draw. The fact of the matter is that if Trubisky makes the same leap as Goff, he can prance over the projections.

Remember, for as up and down as Trubisky was, he showed much more promise in year one than Jared Goff. Goff’s yards per game went up 98 yards from 2017 to 2018.

That type of increase would see Trubsisky in the 4,400-yard range.

So while at first glance it does seem lofty to put that on Trubisky, it certainly is not out of the question either. If Trubisky does get help from his new receiving corps and the new offense transitions as smoothly as some think, it appears as though the Clay projection is fair.

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