Fair or Foul: Mitchell Trubisky sacked 39 times in 2018
ESPN projections have Mitchell Trubisky being sacked 39 times in 2018, is that a fair number?
ESPN fantasy football stat projection expert Mike Clay come out with his first batch of 2018 projection. In them, he has Mitchell Trubisky being sacked 39 times. This is arguably as big on an indictment on Trubisky as his offensive line, so it brings the question as to whether or not this is fair or foul?
2017
Before projecting forward, we need to understand who Mitchell Trubisky was in 2017. He was sacked 31 times in just 12 starts. Extrapolated over 16 games he would have been sacked 41 times.
Of course, sacks taken per pass attempt would be a better metric than games played. The idea would be that Trubisky is going to be throwing the ball more in his second season than his first. So, while he may only be sacked two times less on a game by game rate, his per attempt rate may be better.
Sacks per Pass Attempt
This statistic indeed does show an even more dramatic improvement. In 2017, his sack rate was 8.58. In 2018, Clay has it decreasing to 5.94. That shows a much more dramatic drop off given the idea that Trubisky is going to be throwing the ball more often.
Trubisky
The issue with the increase is that Trubisky can walk into sacks at times. DeShone Kizer had a lower sack rate in 2017, and in a film review done last season, showed more poise in being able to extend plays within the pocket.
Trubisky did not throw a deep interception last season. This is an impressive statistic but also can speak to his inability to push the ball, and willingness to step into sacks. If this number is going to improve, it is going to have to start with the mental clock improving for Trubisky.
Offensive Line
Of course, the offensive line could improve a bit as well. The unit ranked 23rd in pass protection efficiency. So while Trubisky was rushing, and walked into pressure, the pressure still did not have to get there that quick.
The Bears did make a change. The question will be how impactful it can be in one year. The team let go of Josh Sitton and added James Daniels. Daniels is 11 years younger and is much more athletic at this stage in his career.
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However, Daniels is also young and raw. He played center and is moving to guard which will make for growing pains. On top of that, he graded as a better run blocker than pass protector as well. His high upside athleticism is what has the team excited about his development, but his lack of power is what has them thinking he is a more natural guard than center. He will be tested early and often against power, and pockets may be moved on Daniels side early.
That does not mention Bobby Massie, who the team would like to replace at some point soon. Unfortunately, this offseason was not the time. Kyle Long is healthy right now and could really help out a unit he has not been able to give all of his time to. However, it is tough to say he will have a huge impact, and it is tough to argue the offensive line and Trubisky are enough to see this improvement.
Quick Passing
However, one thing that could lead to a lower sack rate is getting the ball out of the hands of Trubisky quicker. Alex Smith has a career sack rate of 7.8, but last season had a sack rate of 6.5. In 2016, the only other season Matt Nagy was the offensive coordinator, his sack rate was 5.4 a career low.
It does not take watching much of Matt Nagy and his play calling to know that he loves the motion and exposing mismatches pre-play. From there, he wants the ball out of his quarterback’s hands, and into the playmakers.
This is the biggest variable that is going to see such a spike in sack efficiency. This certainly will play a factor, but the case could be made that the number is a sack or two too low for Trubisky.
Time will tell if he was able to gain comfort maneuvering the pocket and if his offensive line can improve.