Fair or Foul: 240 rushes for Jordan Howard

Would 240 rushing attempts for Jordan Howard in 2018 be a reasonable baseline?

A lot of people are predicting Jordan Howard to fall off a bit. It is understandable that Howard has an issue with catching passes, and Matt Nagy has stressed versatility in every skill player. Jordan Howard has been working on improving his pass catching this offseason, but it is a clear weakness that a player such as Tarik Cohen does not have.

The idea that Howard is not a fit for a Matt Nagy offense had escalated when reports of trade rumors had come about and he removed a plethora of pictures from his Instagram account.

Matt Nagy came back to say that Howard is a vital part of the offense but also went on to say that running back carries are dependent on game flow. Needless to say, he has not necessarily put water on all of the flames.

Mike Clay who does the fantasy football projections for ESPN.com has Howard projected for 240 carries in 2018. That would be the least of his career, including his rookie season in which he was not a starter in week one.

Howard had 252 carries that season. In 2017 he had 276 carries. To see 240 would not be a dramatic drop-off, but it would be a meaningful loss of touches.

Kansas City Chiefs

While it is a microscopic sample, in the only chances we got to see Matt Nagy as a play caller, he relied heavily on the run. In the three games in which Kareem Hunt saw action in the regular season, he saw 25, 24, and 29 rushes with Matt Nagy as the play caller.

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It can be argued that Hunt was a more effective pass catcher than Howard. The Kansas City Chiefs did not necessarily have lethal wide receivers beyond Tyreek Hill and on top of all of that, Matt Nagy abandoned the run in the playoffs and took criticism for that decision.

Still, the Bears are looking to get Howard more involved in the passing game. It can be argued that the Chiefs passing game was more stable than Chicago when adding in Travis Kelce and Nagy taking heat for not running in the playoffs would only remind him not to become one-sided, no?

Kareem Hunt was on pace for an unrealistic number of carries in his limited chances with Matt Nagy. He still had 272 carries in what should be a similar offense to the Bears.

Game Flow

Of course, the game flow could affect this as well. Sure, Matt Nagy ran it down teams throats. When he had the lead and was able to. If the Chicago Bears are playing from behind, they will abandon the run whether Nagy remembers balance or not.

The Chiefs were a playoff team last season. If the Bears are in that category, and they are milking away leads, it should be a no-brainer that he eclipses 240 carries. However, it can be argued that this team is likely another year away from that being a week to week thing.

Still, Howard is the healthiest and most proven player on the offense. The offense is better, and the team should have more leads than a year before. Nagy has proven that he wants to run the football, and already has a tough loss to remind him.

While a lot of people are down on Jordan Howard, it may be a time to buy in. Even if it is only 250, I think he will eclipse that 240 mark.

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