Fair or Foul: 7 rushing TDs for Jordan Howard

CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 03: Jordan Howard
CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 03: Jordan Howard /

Does seven touchdowns feel like a fair number to set for Jordan Howard in 2018?

Mike Clay, who does the fantasy football projections at ESPN.com usually has some of the most accurate projections in the mainstream media. For Jordan Howard, he has seven touchdowns for his 2018 season. Does that seem like a fair or foul projection?

Howards career

For his career, Howard has 15 touchdowns. That features one year with six touchdowns and one year with nine. What is interesting to note about Howard is that 14 of his 15 touchdowns came in goal to go situations on runs of less than ten yards.

Howard has broken a big run in his time, but he has never been the big play threat. He is a back who gets four consistently more than burst off 20-yard runs. In fact, one keynote from his 2016 season was being caught from behind too often.

Matt Nagy

Still, his vision is a great reason for Howard to convert so many short yardages runs for touchdowns, so he will fit in the role as the goal line runner in the Matt Nagy offense. Another good thing about the Nagy offense is that it appears to get into the red zone a bit more often than the Bears of last season, and they went to their running backs at a higher rate.

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Kareem Hunt had 35 attempts, four more rushes inside the ten-yard line than Howard last season. Even more interesting than that is that if you had extrapolated the carries Hunt had inside the ten when Matt Nagy was calling the plays, he would have finished with 48 attempts in that area.

Fair or Foul

Hunt finished with eight touchdowns last season, and five within the ten. Hunt is a better pass catcher and breaks more big runs than Jordan Howard. That is why it would be argued that Howard would not see as many touches or snaps per game as Howard. Still, it feels as though anywhere from 7-9 does feel as though the fair amount of touchdowns to project for Howard.

It is at a similar rate as Howard’s first two seasons and the Hunt rookie season. Howard should be in red zone situations more often with the Matt Nagy offense. However, with increased roles of tight ends and Tarik Cohen, it is tough to argue a significant increase is in order. Overall, seven touchdowns do seem to be a fair call for Jordan Howard.