Fair or Foul: 1,000 yards for Allen Robinson
Can Allen Robinson bounce back from his injury to put up over 1,000 yards in 2018?
Mike Clay, who does the fantasy projections for ESPN.com has Allen Robinson projected to catch 73 passes for just over 1,000 yards, at 1,046. With his receiving total being so close to that plateau, it brings the question, is 1,000 yards a fair expectation for Allen Robinson? Would you be happy with that production?
The only two historical years we have to go off are two pretty stark contrasts from each other. In 2015 and 2016 he was targeted 151 times, all coming from the hand of Blake Bortles.
However, in 2015, he caught 80 passes for 1,400 yards. In 2016, he turned 73 passes into 883 yards. 14 touchdowns to 6 from 2015 to 2016. Over a two-year period, he would have 76 catches for 1,141 yards and 10 touchdowns. That is not far off of the projections that Clay has laid out.
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The fact of the matter is that Trubisky should be an upgrade in the quarterback for Robinson. It should be the best quarterback he has played with in his career. This is a player who had two 1,400 yard seasons with Christian Hackenberg at quarterback. Heck, you can argue that Robinson is the reason that Hackenberg is even a known player in the NFL.
137 targets seem realistic. In his two seasons in Jacksonville when he had 151 targets he was the focal point of the offense. Matt Nagy is going to spread the ball around more often. A number between 130 and 140 would be more realistic.
Still, he should be able to turn that into more receptions than 73 given the nature of the offense. With that, 1,000 yards should feel closer to the floor than a realistic expectation. Robinson could turn in a 1,200-yard season with a decline in targets than what was becoming the standard.
It seems as though Clay is being somewhat aggressive, but is still hesitating from going all the way in on Robinson being completely healthy. It is fair, but if Robinson is back, he is going to come up short.