Twenty Questions Heading into Training Camp: 1. Will Jordan Howard’s role be reduced?

Our first of twenty questions: Will Jordan Howard’s role be reduced?

There has been a lot of excitement surrounding the Chicago Bears this season for their fans, especially the addition of Matt Nagy as the team’s new head coach. Fans grew frustrated over the last few seasons seeing John Fox’s offense stall out consistently running an uninspiring offense that never seemed to put it together. Things bottomed out last season, when Fox clearly had no faith in rookie Mitch Trubisky and handcuffed the Bears by running an offense from 1954 that featured Jordan Howard running it twice and Trubisky throwing it on third and long.

That offense didn’t work for anyone, but over the last couple of seasons, it certainly worked for one person, and that person is Jordan Howard. Howard played superbly well in his first two seasons in the league and has put up better numbers than any Bears’ running back ever to start their career. When you are talking about the likes of Gayle Sayers, Walter Payton and even Matt Forte, that’s some pretty good company to be in.

With a developing young quarterback and a new offensive system that certainly will feature the passing game far more, what does this mean for Jordan Howard? The Bears definitely won’t be as reliant on the running game so will Howard find his way into the background?

In Howard’s rookie season, the Chicago Bears offense tallied 5874 yards. Howard accounted for 1611 for a total of 27% of the Bears offense. Last season, the team’s offense production dropped to 4873 while Howard amassed 1247 total yards. That percentage equals 26% of the Bears offense. That’s pretty consistent over the first two seasons.

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By comparison, looking at top-notch running backs in better offenses, Le’Veon Bell accounted for 31% of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense while Todd Gurley accounted for 35% of the Los Angeles Rams offense. The major difference there is that both of these players are heavily involved in the team’s passing game. Howard only accounted for 125 yards through the air last year. When looking at yards from scrimmage, to find someone with less yards through the air than Howard, you have to go all the way down to Latavius Murray who only added 103 yards via the pass for the Minnesota Vikings (and 945 yards overall). Murray was the 24th ranked running back for all-purpose yards.

Part of Howard’s struggles were due to an anemic passing game, but you certainly can’t blame everything on that. Howard is not a good pass catcher and Nagy is going to have to figure out how to balance the idea that Howard must be utilized in the offense while increasing the team’s presence in the passing game.

What this probably means for Howard is more of a reduced role by percentage, rather than by production. As mentioned before, the Bears only tallied 4873 yards last season. That number should most likely increase by a solid 1000 yards next season, however, it’s likely that Howard’s numbers don’t increase much at all.

Nagy won’t be stupid, Howard is a talented ball carrier so he’s going to remain a part of the offense, but if the rushing numbers decrease slightly from last season. Howard had 1122 yards, let’s say that number drops to 1050, but Howard’s receiving yards jump from 125 up to 250. That means Howard’s total yards from scrimmage would increase from 1247 in 2017 to 1300 in 2018. However, if the Bears total offense jumps from 4873 to 5800. That means Howard’s percentage of the team’s offense drops to 22%.

That’s the most likely scenario from Howard. You should expect the Bears offense to be better, and Howard to have a lesser role overall, but still produce similar numbers than he has the first couple of seasons. The Philadelphia Eagles were able to utilize LeGarrette Blount in their offense who is involved less in the passing game than Howard. If the Eagles can do it, the Bears certainly can as well.

Next: 2018 Jordan Howard Fantasy Projection

The bigger question for Howard is his long-term viability for the Bears. Nagy will most likely want more of an all-purpose back to use in his offense that can both run and catch. If Howard doesn’t make gigantic strides in the catching department over the next two seasons, it’s very possible that the Bears don’t pay Howard significant dollars for his second contract and let him walk.

But for now Bears’ fans, enjoy Howard. He’s still going to be in the backfield plenty next season and he’ll be seeing plenty of carries as well. While the percentage of the load he carries may lessen, that shouldn’t affect his overall production. Howard fans have nothing to worry about in that regard, but if you think he’s suddenly going to become a Gurley or a Bell, that’s not happening either.