Our third question in our twenty question series: Is Trey Burton ready to be featured?
Other than second-year QB Mitch Trubisky, of all the players on the Chicago Bears’ 2018 roster, the player that is going to have to make the biggest jump this season from their previous production is tight end Trey Burton.
The Bears signed Burton to be a key member of their offense. It’s possible that after Allen Robinson, the Bears expect Burton to be the second most targeted player on the offense. Can Burton make that jump? That’s going to be a critical question for this offense moving forward in 2018.
Burton is entering his fifth season in the league. He spent his first four seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles. In Burton’s career, he has 63 catches for 629 yards for a 10.0 Avg and 6 touchdowns. Again, those numbers are over four seasons, the Bears will expect Burton to post those type of numbers in this season alone.
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Most of those numbers came over the last two seasons, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Bears are going to want Burton to double his production (at least). The Bears signed Burton to a 4-year deal worth $32 million. You certainly don’t pay someone $8 million per year to catch 25 passes a year.
Burton’s biggest problem in Philadelphia was that he was stuck behind Zach Ertz. Ertz is one of the most productive tight ends in the league. Ertz has tallied over 800 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. That doesn’t leave much room for Burton. Last season, Burton was only on the field for 26.5% of the offensive snaps. In 2016, it was 29.2%.
Let’s take a look at productivity per snap. Over the last two seasons, Ertz was on the field for 1629 snaps and gained 1640 yards. That means Ertz gained 1.01 yards per offensive snap.
By comparison, Burton was on the field for 631 snaps over the last two seasons and gained 575 yards. That puts him at 0.91 yards per offensive snap. That means in his opportunities, Burton was 91% as effective as Ertz was in the passing game.
If you project Burton to be 91% of Ertz, that works out to 750 yards and seven touchdowns. Obviously, it’s tough to say that’s exactly what Burton would be in a new offense with a new quarterback, but if, for argument’s sake, he did manage to put up those numbers this season, that would make him the fifth most productive tight end in the NFL (based on players’ 2017 stats).
Next: 2018 Trey Burton Fantasy Projections
If given the opportunity, those numbers absolutely say that Burton is ready for this opportunity. Matt Nagy is going to have Burton lined up all over the field and he’s going to be a key member of the team’s passing attack. Burton will have every opportunity to put up those type of numbers. If Trubisky develops the way many expect him to do from year one to year two, Burton could be in line to have a tremendous season.
Is Burton ready to be a featured part of an offense? Absolutely.