The Chicago Bears are struggling to run the football. What appears to be the issue with the situation?
The Chicago Bears have had one of the weaker rushing attacks in the NFL. Head coach Matt Nagy has been adamant in press conferences saying that his team needs to run the football better. However, with a backup quarterback, the team went pass first and still struggled to run the football.
With winter coming and Mitch Trubisky having shoulder soreness, a run game is a necessity to win a Super Bowl. What has been the issue with the rushing offense this season?
After four games, we dissected the issue and noticed that second level and open field runs were a big issue and that the backs were getting what was there, but nothing more. However, it is worth noting that now the Bears rank 15th in power rushing and 23rd in stuff rank. They are no longer even getting decent gains on a consistent basis.
The noticeable difference has been Kyle Long. When looking at his on/off splits, the rushing offense went from decent to poor when he exited the lineup.
When Long is on the field, the Chicago Bears have a 53% rushing success rate, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and seeing 6.9% of those runs resulted in open field yards.
Without him, they have a 41% success rate, averaging 2.93 yards per carry and a 2.9% explosive run rate. That has been a significant decline. Some of that has to do with opponent. The Detroit Lions are much improved against the run. The Vikings are no slouch either.
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However, there is a clear drop off from Long to Bryan Witzmann, even if it is not that stark. Take this play against the Lions for example. Witzmann pulls and takes A’Shawn Robinson on one-on-one. Witzmann loses, and Robinson makes the tackle behind the line of scrimmage. Bobby Massie was late to pick up the linebacker as well, but this is an example of a run that wasn’t being stuffed in the backfield with Kyle Long on the field.
James Daniels looked sharp on that play, but he has not been a stud in run blocking, either. This may come as a surprise to some seeing his Iowa pedigree, but he is a young prospect who lacks the grown strength. He is developing into an NFL guard, and that means with power as well. In that regard, the run offense has dropped off since he has stepped in as well.
The team is least successful running off of the left guard spot, with only 42% of runs to grade successful over the left guard. Yes, Eric Kush can share responsibility there. However, when looking at their splits, the Bears have a 46% success rate, 3.8 yards per carry and 4.3% of runs to grade explosive. With Kush, they have a 52% success rate, 4.42 yards per carry and 6.8% explosive run rate. Kush did not take on the Lions and Vikings run defenses. He also started with Long for almost every snap. However, there is a drop off from the opening day duo of Long and Kush to Daniels and Witzmann.
In this play here you can see Ziggy Ansah get leverage on Daniels and dominate him in run defense.
The idea with Daniels is that he is going to get better. He was drafted for what he can be, not what he is. Witzmann is what he is. He was signed off of the street but is extremely familiar with Nagy and his system. It is tough to say that he is going to pick up the run game. The question would be whether or not they decide to go back to Kush over Witzmann. As of now, they are hoping that both players can use their experience against tough run defenses to round into form come playoff time.