NFC Playoff Picture: Week 13 Edition

The NFC Playoff Picture is starting to take shape. How do the Chicago Bears look?

The Chicago Bears look to be in great shape to earn their first playoff spot since Lovie Smith was their head coach.

The Bears have to continue to play like they have been and take care of business, and if they do, not only will they earn a playoff berth, but they should win their division as well. Let’s take a look at how the playoffs are currently taking shape.

New Orleans Saints and LA Rams

The Saints and Rams will most likely be the top two seeds in the NFC. They have the best records with the Rams currently at 10-1 and the Saints at 10-2 after Thursday’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The Saints hold the tiebreaker on the Rams, so if the Rams are to earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they’ll have to stay a game up on the Saints.

The Bears, however, can still throw their hat in the ring here. If the Bears win out and go 13-3, they’ll saddle the Rams with their second loss. With the Saints already at 2 losses (and two games against Carolina plus the Steelers on the schedule), there’s a good chance they’ll lose 1 or 2 more. The Rams schedule is much softer, but if they stumble one other time, they’ll also find themselves at 13-3.

Here’s some good news: if the Bears are 13-3, they’ll hold the tiebreaker over both the Rams and the Saints, which means if the Bears remain hot, they’ll have a legitimate shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If the Bears falter one more time and finish at 12-4, that means they would need the Saints to lose two of their final four (not impossible), and if that happens, the Bears could still grab the number two seed and a first round bye.

NFC North

While pushing themselves into the conversation with the top two NFC teams would be great, odds are the Saints and Rams will remain ahead of Chicago. If that’s the case, the Bears should focus on winning the division and earning themselves a home game in the Wild Card round. The Bears have already clinched finishing ahead of the Detroit Lions so obviously the focus is on the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings.

The Packers have a soft schedule, but the Bears currently have a 3.5 game lead on them with 5 to play, which means basically if the Packers win out, the Bears still only need to go 2-3 down the stretch to finish ahead of them. If the Packers lose one more time, it almost guarantees that the Bears finish ahead of them and if the Bears defeat the Packers at Soldier Field, it does guarantee the Bears a better record than the Packers.

With the Packers a long shot, the focus is on the Vikings. The Bears are currently up 1.5 games in the standings to Minnesota, and with the tie, while the head to head victory for Chicago is nice, it doesn’t matter in the tiebreaker scenario because they simply won’t tie unless somehow the Bears tie a game down the stretch.

The Vikings have a critical stretch coming up here with the Patriots and Seahawks on the road in back to back weeks. If the Bears split the next two games and the Vikings drop both, they’ll have a sizable lead. If the Bears can manage to win the next two, if Minnesota loses the next two, the Bears will have clinched the division with three games to play, that would be remarkable.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 29: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys gets sakced by Craig Robertson #52 of the New Orleans Saints in the second half of a game at AT&T Stadium on November 29, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

NFC East

While the Bears are most likely looking at the 3-seed, the NFC East winner is most likely looking at the 4-seed. They only exception is the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys still could win a tiebreaker with the Bears, but if the Bears beat the Giants, that becomes an impossibility for Dallas, which means the Bears would almost certainly guarantee themselves to keep the spot ahead of Dallas.

If Washington or Philadelphia jump Dallas and win the division, at this point, it’s hard to see any scenario where they could actually jump the Bears. The focus on this race for Bears’ fans is Dallas. But again, beat the Giants on Sunday and make the NFC East almost irrelevant for the Bears.

Wild Card Spots

There’s no point to discuss the wild card spots from a Bears’ perspective until the picture comes a little more into focus. If the Bears falter and the Vikings jump them, we can look at where the Bears fit in against the other teams vying for a wild card spot.

If the Bears win the division, obviously one of the wild card teams will be their opponent, but right now, there are simply too many teams in the mix.

You can safely eliminate the San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions and New York Giants from wild card contention. The Atlanta Falcons are hanging on by a fingernail and are almost certainly dead.

But let’s wait a week or two and have a couple more teams drop out of the picture before we break down six potential wild card teams, which is where we are right now.