Chicago Bears fans wondered how much the success of the offense was due to Mitch Trubisky and how much was due to Matt Nagy. In the past two games, it was clear Mitch Trubisky is a significant upgrade for the offense
With Mitch Trubisky expected to return to the lineup on Sunday, we got a glimpse into the life without the number two overall pick. While it was not bad-Chicago did go 1-1-it has not been pretty either.
Mitch Trubisky takes a lot of flack, but in key areas where he excels, it was clear that team was missing their signal caller. Chase Daniel played 140 snaps, which creates a decent sample size. With that, there were noticeable differences in what the offense looked like.
The Chicago Bears lack of run success was stunning. With Mitch Trubisky on the field, the Bears have been a successful running group. 51% of their runs have graded successfully. Without him, that number falls off of a cliff as only 29% of their runs have graded successfully.
Some of this can be explained by playing the Detroit Lions, who added Damon Harrison and have taken off as a run defense group. While Trubisky just faced that defense, Chase Daniel did see them on a short week. Jordan Howard had success against the Giants, but when you break down his runs, most of them were unsuccessful. A couple of big bursts changed his stats, and it showed as Matt Nagy got away from the run late due to the inconsistency.
We all know Mitch Trubisky is a great scrambler and in that regard would add to the run success. On top of that, his threat to run has linebackers freeze, as they are worried about him. This pauses opens lanes for others and makes blocking easier. Teams are not worried about Daniel as a runner, and key in on the backs. That is how your rushing efficiency improves by 75% with the addition of one player.
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The scrambling of Trubisky adds to the rushing success and in the same hand takes away from the sacks. As we chart sacks every week and assign blame, Chase Daniel has flown up the charts over the past two weeks.
That is why it was no surprise to see the teams sack rate nearly double without Trubisky. With Trubisky in the lineup, the line allowed a sack 5.6% of his dropbacks. That number balloons up to 10.2% when Daniel is dropping back. The explanation is obvious, and this is a direct correlation of Trubisky.
The last element that Trubisky brings that Daniel does not is the deep ball. Sure, the weather had to do with his lack of deep field success against the Giants. Still, it was clear in the dome of Detroit that Trubisky brings an explosive arm while Daniel does not.
In the past two weeks, 8.9% of their passes have graded explosive with Mitch Trubisky on the field that number is all the way at 16.6%. It has nothing to do with the opponent, the elements or the players around him. This has to do with the fact that one quarterback is a dynamic skill player with a strong arm and ability to make plays. The other is not physically as talented.
Trubisky can run, he can avoid sacks, and he can turn nothing into huge plays down the football field. It has become apparent over the past two games that these are skills he posses that do put the offense over the top. Without him, these elements of the game fall off significantly. It will be good to get Trubisky out there and see a more balanced and dynamic offense.