Mitch Trubisky Advanced Stats Review

What do the underlying metrics say about Mitch Trubisky’s 2018 season

Everyone can point to completion percentage, touchdowns and interceptions to judge a quarterbacks play. However, we also all know that playing quarterback is much more than that, and those are just the by-products of some of what the quarterback can do. It does not tell the whole story.

However, some advanced stats from sites such as Pro Football Focus and NextGen Stats have been created to give some context into these broader stats. Remember, these are not grades from PFF, but pure stats displaying what a player did on the field. With that in mind, how does Trubisky stack up to his competitors in these metrics?

Pressure vs. No-Pressure

Every quarterback gets worse when pressured. However, the question becomes how much does it affect you? When it comes to Mitch Trubisky, his ability to handle pressure was more impressive than some of the better quarterbacks in the league, and some of his peers. After looking into Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, DeShaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger, Trubisky stacks up favorably.

Mitch Trubisky sees a 19.7% drop in completion percentage when pressured. However, that is not a big concern when factoring in Patrick Mahomes sees a 26.7% drop off, Jared Goff falls 28.5, and even Tom Brady drops 24% when pressured.

Drew Brees and Philip Rivers saw 16 and 17% drop-offs respectively.

Trubisky saw a 0.3 yards per attempt drop off, nearly the same rate when pressured as from a clean pocket. None of the quarterbacks listed had a better rate, and only Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and DeShaun Watson saw a drop off in yards per attempt of less than one yard under pressure.

Trubisky did see a slight drop off in touchdown rate, throwing one 2.1% less often under pressure. However, Patrick Mahomes touchdown rate dropped 8% under pressure. Still, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rodgers and Watson saw the better disparity in TD rate under pressure. Tom Brady had a better TD rate under pressure than from a clean pocket.

With the disparity in Mahomes, it is a good time to mention the drop off will be so drastic because he was so much better than his competition from a clean pocket.

Nonetheless, Trubisky was the only quarterback of this group to throw fewer interceptions under pressure than from a clean pocket. It is good to note that Trubisky can make plays under pressure and protected the ball under pressure.

Blitz vs. No Blitz

There is a difference between pressure and the blitz. When seeing pressure, physical people are disrupting him. Against the blitz, he sees five or more rush after him, and it is more about setting protections and understanding who is coming. This comes down to pre-snap diagnoses more than reactionary ability.

This is where we see some of the issues with Trubisky. Compared to the same quarterbacks Trubisky saw the most significant drop off by far.

He dropped 12% in completion rate against the blitz. Jared Goff saw a 6.9% dip and Matt Ryan went down 6.3%. Ben Roethlisberger was a surprising 4.8% more accurate on passes when blitzed.

Trubisky had the most significant drop off in yards per attempt as well as none of these other quarterbacks were affected by more than one yard per attempt, Trubisky saw a decrease in 1.4 yards per attempt.

Trubisky had positive touchdown and interception numbers when blitzed, which may come down to the quick passing in the red zone. Still, the numbers back up something Matt Nagy admitted in his end of season press conference. The one area Trubisky needs to get better is pre-snap recognition.

Directional Passing

When Mitch Trubisky throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage he is 237-288 and 82% completion rate. He had ten touchdowns and one interception along with 6.1 yards per attempt.

From 10-20 yards he completed 54% of his passes on 87 attempts. He had five touchdowns and five interceptions to go with 7.6 yards per attempt.

When attacking the deep field, he hit 38% of his passes on 82 attempts. However, these went for 12.2 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns, and seven interceptions.

To the left side, Trubisky completed 64% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions. He had a 74% completion rate to the middle of the field for 7.8 yards per attempt and seven touchdowns to go with six interceptions. To the right side, he had a 65% completion rate averaging 7.6 yards per throw and ten touchdowns with four interceptions.

Here is his directional passer rating chart

Trubisky is going to want to get better in the middle intermediate. Still, it is good to see that his yards per attempt did not change by direction and he had 202 attempts to the middle of the field, compared to just 148 to the right side and 108 to the left. He is getting work over the middle.

Target rate by wide receiver

Trubisky has good yards per attempt rate to each direction of the field and spreads the football out as well. Tarik Cohen has a 15.5% target rate, Allen Robinson is at 19.7%, Taylor Gabriel 18.1%, Anthony Miller 11.1% and Trey Burton 14.3%. All five weapons saw the ball their fair share amount, with Miller lagging mainly due to injuries.

Time to throw

Considering his mobility and struggles with pre-snap recognition he gets the ball out reasonably quickly. Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Carr get the ball out at the fastest rate, 2.55 seconds. Trubisky is not far behind at 2.65 seconds. This is interesting to note because he is known as a scrambling quarterback. However, scrambling quarterbacks such as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson all hold the ball over 3 seconds. When he is not running, he is getting the ball out much quicker than these scramblers.

This is a good thing but also can add to some of his pre-snap questions. He can throw the ball even when he did not get the look he wanted, and that will get the ball out of his hands but will lead to trouble.

Intended Air Yards Difference

This breaks down the difference between how far down the field you throw it, and how far down the field are your completions on average. For instance, Josh Allen throws the ball 11 yards down the field on average, he is a gunslinger. But, he is inaccurate, and 6.5 yards down the field is where his average intended completions are. He has a 4.6 intended air yard difference.

Trubisky is not that erratic. He has a 2.7 air yard difference. Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers all have a 2.8 intended air yard difference. However, while Mayfield and Mahomes also throw the ball down the field more often, over nine yards per attempt. Trubisky and Rodgers each have an intended distance of 8.8 yards down the field.

Average Yards to the Sticks

The most frustrating thing of a quarterback is checking down on third down to set up fourth and short. What is the point, right. This stat breaks down how far beyond the first down marker a quarterback throws per attempt. Cody Kessler checks the ball down the most, almost three yards behind the sticks. Jameis Winston is the big-armed quarterback throwing 1.5 yards past the sticks on average.

Trubisky once again stands beside Baker Mayfield throwing 0.1 yards past the sticks.

Aggressiveness

A difference between Mayfield and Trubisky shows in aggressiveness rating.This is how often a quarterback throws into a tight window. This can be a good thing for a quarterback, and a bad thing.

Trubisky has a pretty high aggressiveness rate, trailing just Andrew Luck, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston, and Josh Rosen. For Trubisky and a lot of these names, the high aggressiveness could likely be toned down.

This ties into 1. Trubisky is getting the ball out quick and 2. Trubisky struggling with pre-snap diagnoses, two things that were already pointed out.

Baker Mayfield is 2% less aggressive, and even a “gunslinger” such as Mahomes is 5% less aggressive throwing into tight windows as Trubisky. It is fair to say that while you love the confidence, he can tone it down.

Expected completion percentage

The last stat to look at is expected completion percentage. This shows which quarterbacks are missing the layups and which are draining threes. For example, Blake Bortles has the second worst expected completion percentage. He is missing passes he should be hitting.

While Bortles has a -6.9% rating, Trubisky is 1.4 in the positive. Being an overly aggressive quarterback can lead to mistakes, but can also lead to a few more completions than expected. Of course, that is when you have an arm like Trubisky. Mahomes has 1.7% increase in expected completion percentage, showing that Trubisky is close in tight window throws.

Conclusions

Overall this pointed out things that match up with what you see on tape. Trubisky is volatile. He can excel under pressure compared to the best but fail against the blitz in the same regard. It is clear that he has the accuracy to all levels of the field and can spread the ball around without being reliant on one pass catchers.

However, he also has to be better before the snap at knowing not only who is blitzing, but where defenders are dropping into coverage. While he gets the ball out quick, his pre-snap diagnoses issues can show in his aggressive rate. While his arm talent helps him get away with it at times, he could slow down on the tight window throws, and this comes with knowing what he is seeing.

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