How many RBs will be drafted by Chicago Bears pick?
How many running backs are likely to be taken before the Chicago Bears pick at 87th overall
With the Chicago Bears waiting until 87th overall for their first selection in the 2019 NFL draft it is tough to decide who will be there, and who will be gone by then. Too often, fans come into comment sections over draft profiles with “he will not be there, what is the point?”
However, as every fan knows, the draft “experts” find themselves stumped about 20 minutes into draft night. While it will be impossible to guess who or who will not be on the board, the Bears could have a decent idea about the number of players at each position taken.
Since 2011, when the new CBA kicked in, an average of 5.75 running backs are drafted in the first 86 picks. This includes Kareem Hunt who was drafted 86th overall, one right before the Bears selection this year. In that season, Hunt was the sixth running back off of the board.
By Round
Since 2011, 12 running backs have gone in the first round, 23 have gone in the second round, and nine have fallen into round three. Taking out the round three backs, 4.4 running backs go in the first two rounds on average in the past eight years.
First-round running back?
With 12 running backs going in the first round it can create a big of a rush to get your back while you still can. 2019 may be a bit of a different year with many speculating that zero running backs are going to get drafted in round one.
Josh Jacobs is the consensus top back, but after an average Pro Day, he is looking like an early round two player.
If zero running backs get drafted in the first round, it is certainly a good sign for the Chicago Bears to get one of their higher rated backs.
While it has only happened twice since 2011, when a running back does not go in round one, the fifth running back drafted will usually be at pick 87.
In 2013 zero running backs were drafted in round one which was followed by five being selected in round two. From there, none were drafted before pick 87. The following year only three backs went in round two after none in round one.
When just one running back goes in round one, five backs go by pick 87 as well. In 2011, four-second rounders followed one first round back, and in 2016 only three running backs went by pick 87 with one in round one.
When two backs go in round one, five other backs quickly follow, and in 2012 and 2018 we saw three backs go in round one, leaving the 7th and 9th best back in the draft for pick 87.
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Who could be on the board?
Seeing that no running backs should go in the top 32 picks gives the Bears a great chance to expect about five running backs to be taken by their selection.
Josh Jacobs is the clear cut favorite to be taken, and while him falling out of round one would help the Chicago Bears, the lowest he will go is round two. A consensus seems to have built that Damien Harris, the running mate of Jacobs and David Montgomery of Iowa State are also locks to be selected in round two at some point.
From there, two more backs are likely to be taken. The consensus beyond those two says that Darrell Henderson, Miles Sanders, and Devin Singletary are next in line.
It would be stunning to see all three on the board, but one or two should almost be expected to be on the board beyond that.
Of course, a team reaching for a back beyond these six would also help the Bears case to land one of these top six backs.
While the draft is certainly fluid, the Bears should enter the draft with the idea that between Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, and Devin Singletary, almost all six will be gone, and every other back has a great chance of being on the board.