NFL Draft: Best and worst pass catching RB options for Chicago Bears

Based on the running backs that the Chicago Bears have interest in, which ones are the best catching the football out of the backfield?

While we do not know when or who it will be, it is very clear that the Chicago Bears are going to draft a running back. The team has kicked the tires and met with draft prospects of all shapes, sizes, and styles of running. They are looking for the perfect back.

In fact, it was reported after the combine that they pretty much were searching for a perfect back.

The back they are looking for needed three-down ability, lateral cuts at the second and third level, and a passing game option, not a check down player. Like I said, the perfect back.

#Bears’ new profile at RB is a three-down, two-speed back who can laterally evade at the second- and third-level when the opportunity arises, as well as be *featured* in the passing in the game, not just a check down.
— dan durkin (@djdurkin) March 3, 2019

In search of finding the back that fits the most of this criteria, we will do a four-part series breaking down three-down ability, elusiveness, breakaway speed, and the receiving ability of each back the Bears have met with or had rumored interest in. Darrell Henderson is also added as a measuring stick, being one of the top consensus backs the team did not meet with.

The list of backs that will be looked at include: Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Trayveon Williams, Devin Singletary, RyQuell Armstead, Mike Weber, Alexander Mattison, Bruce Anderson, Devine Ozigbo, Myles Gaskin, Benny Snell, Bryce Love, James Williams, Dexter Williams, and Darrell Henderson

Part one will look at receiving backs.

Target Share

To be a pass catching back, you first must be used in the passing game. While raw passing stats give a decent indicator of how much a back is used in the passing game, target share is better because it takes a percentage of a teams pass attempts into account. Some teams in college are much more diverse in their play calling.

While target share is not an end all be all, it does provide context into who college coaches saw as weapons in the passing game and game planned to target.

The Good outliers: James Williams

The Bad Outliers: Dexter Williams, Miles Sanders

*No data for Bruce Anderson

It is likely no surprise that James Williams was an outlier receiving 11% of the offensive targets, more than 3% more than any other back in the class. He was in a quick passing Washington State offense and was a relied on as a check down option in that area. If the Bears draft James Williams, it is solely in a pass-catching role.

The interesting outliers here are Dexter Williams, with a 1.5% target share, and Miles Sanders with a 2.6% target share. Williams is not looked at as a pass-catching option, and his limited ability is factored into his draft stock.

Miles Sanders was not targeted often, and he is looked at as a pass-catching option in the NFL. That is because he ran routes down the field that did not turn into receptions due to quarterback play and varying factors. Still, while many point to Devin Singletary being a questionable pass catcher, and brush it off for Sanders. The lack of usage in the passing game is a red flag.

Speaking of Singletary, he is in the 7-8% range with a large group of backs in this class. Myles Gaskin, Darrell Henderson, Mike Weber, Alexander Mattison, and Trayveon Williams all join Singletary as moderate options in the passing game in college. It is fair to say that based on their usage they were trusted by their coaches.

Bryce Love, Devine Ozigbo. Josh Jacobs, Ryquell Armstead, and Benny Snell saw between 4-5% of their team’s targets. Snell, Ozigbo, and Armstead are power runners, so to see them over a player such as Dexter Williams is satisfying, but how much more Mattison saw passing work compared to these options is equally as noteworthy.

Love and Jacobs have to be somewhat disappointing in this area. Jacobs can pass off that he was in a rotation, but his best quality is that he is a pass catcher at his size, and even his sample size in that area is limited. Love is a smaller back and a 5% target share brings up a bigger red flag than the undersized Singletary.

Drop Rate

It is one thing to see how often a back was targeted. Now, the question becomes what can they do with those targets? Before doing anything with the ball in their hands, they must secure the ball in their hands. Remember, the Bears do not just want a check down option.

Good Outliers: Darrell Henderson, Alexander Mattison

Bad Outliers: Devin Singletary, Dexter Williams

With that in mind, we officially have a red flag for Devin Singletary. He does not have counting stats because his offense did not throw much-that is shown in his reasonable target share. However, he has a staggering 40% drop rate. His receiving production dropped by year, and the drop rate can back up why the team quickly went away from him.

It is almost hard to call Dexter Williams an outlier next to Singletary, but his 15.8% drop rate is the second worst and is 4% higher than anyone else the team has looked into. Williams now has multiple strikes against him as a pass catcher as he was hardly used, and dropped the small portion of his chances.

Trayveon Williams, Mike Weber, James Williams, and Benny Snell all sat between a 3-6% drop rate. Weber, Trayveon and James Williams check two boxes as players with above average usage and drop rates. Snell showed that while he was not used often in the passing game, he was reliable. However, the tape shows that he is much more of that check down option, hence the low target rate.

Miles Sanders, Devine Ozigbo, Myles Gaskin, Josh Jacobs, Bryce Love, and RyQuell Armstead saw drop rates between 8-11%.

Considering a huge draw of Sanders is his passing game ability this has to be looked at as an even bigger flag. Ozigbo and Armstead confirm their status as check down options at best, while Gaskin, Jacobs and Love disappoint.

Love is disappointing as he is undersized, underutilized in the passing game, and the drops may be a bit of a reason why. Jacobs is right there with Love because while most of his game is projection, to see higher drops on much fewer targets than some of his peers such as Darrell Henderson is worrisome.

Yards Per Route Run

We checked if the coaches trusted them in the passing game, we checked if they can keep the ball in their hands, now what can they do with the ball in their hands? As mentioned, we are not only weeding out the inefficient backs but the check down options. Yards per route run will show us how efficient these backs are when they are called upon with the ball in their hands.

Good Outliers: Bruce Anderson, Darrell Henderson, James Williams

Bad Outliers: Devin Singletary, Myles Gaskin, RyQuell Armstead

We finally have stats on Bruce Anderson and we see why he is getting love. Anderson leads the group averaging over 2 yards per route run. Henderson sits at 1.68, and Williams at 1.59 and they stand out well over the class. Anderson was a true talent as a pass catcher, despite the lower level.

James Williams keeps checking boxes as well. Yards per route run is important for him because his high usage can have him look like a quick check down in an offense schemed for him to produce. However, the creation on top of the targets shows he can be a viable NFL pass-catching option.

Singletary continues to stand out-even compared to the outliers. He averaged 0.16 yards per route run. Gaskin and Armstead are outliers with 0.39 yards per route run. Singletary has serious drops issues, and despite an average usage rate in the passing game, he falls well below his peers on a catch per catch basis.

Gaskin adds serious questions as he comes into the NFL under 200 pounds, and has a concerning drop rate and yards per route run rate. Armstead simply solidifies that he is the closest comparable player to Jordan Howard of this group.

Benny Snell, Josh Jacobs, Bryce Love, Devine Ozigbo, Trayveon Williams, and Dexter Williams all posted between 0.8 and 1.03 yards per route run. While Trayveon Williams was not a high-end outlier, he has been above average in every area. Dexter Williams finally shows some value in the passing game averaging over one yard per route run. He is explosive with the ball in his hands, the question is getting the ball in his hands.

Miles Sanders, Mike Weber, and Alexander Mattison rated between 0.5 and 0.62 yards per route run. Despite usage in the slot Sanders brings real passing game questions. Weber and Mattison have been pleasant surprises in previous areas as bigger, power players who showed well as pass catchers. However, they come back down to earth and show that they are more in the check down type with low yards per route run.

Pass Blocking

Matt Nagy did not talk about it, but to be an every-down back, or a back that threatens in the passing game, pass blocking absolutely matters. It is key to getting young backs on the field early.

Good Outliers: Bruce Anderson, Bryce Love, Devin Singletary

Bad Outliers: James Williams

Anderson, Love, and Singletary all lead the class with a grade of 98. This is important for all three as Singletary and Love are undersized with serious questions in other areas, and Anderson is from a small school and qualified for only two categories.

More from Bear Goggles On

James Williams finally shows his drawback. He is under 200 pounds, he is not going to run between the tackles often, and he is not going to pass block. He is efficient as a pass catcher, though.

Sanders, Weber, Henderson, Armstead, Snell, and Jacobs all qualified as above average as pass blockers. Finally, a win for Sanders.

Gaskin, Ozigbo, Mattison and Dexter Williams were below average. Although only slight drop-offs from the higher guys, Gaskin and Williams raise the biggest red flags with their inability to pass protect considering their other questions.

Best Pass Catching Options: James Williams, Alexander Mattison, Mike Weber, Darrell Henderson, Trayveon Williams, Bruce Anderson

James Williams was made for this post. Trayveon Williams separated himself from names such as Singletary and Gaskin as smaller complimentary options by showing clear value as a pass catcher. Alexander Mattison and Mike Weber also answered serious questions as bigger backs who can provide better than most other backs over 220 pounds in this class, including Josh Jacobs.

Red Flags: Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, Bryce Love, Dexter Williams, Myles Gaskin, RyQuell Armstead, Josh Jacobs

Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary are the biggest losers. Sanders is all projection as a pass catcher and Singletary showed that he has struggled to take advantage of his usage. Love and Gaskin also slide in a major way as smaller backs who are supposed to add a complementary value as a pass catcher.

Dexter Williams and Armstead also fell below the likes of Weber and Mattison if the Bears are looking for a bigger back who can add in the passing game. These two have serious questions that bring the same issues as Jordan Howard.

Stayed tuned for our elusive breakdown tomorrow!

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