Here’s what to expect from new running back Mike Davis from a statistical perspective.
After Jordan Howard’s disappointing 2018 season, Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy knew that they weren’t going to be able to enter 2019 with the same personnel.
Pace began shopping Howard immediately after the season and eventually sent him to Philadelphia. Nagy and Pace knew they needed fresh blood and the first recruit they signed was Mike Davis.
Davis was a mid round pick by the San Francisco 49ers and his first couple of seasons he was dreadful. He made his way over to the Seattle Seahawks and improved some in 2017 before having by far his best season as a pro in 2018.
Last year, Davis gained 728 all-purpose yards and had a career best 4.6 yards per rush to go with 5 touchdowns (he had 1 TD total in his first three seasons).
The Bears loved what Davis could bring as an interior runner and also loved the fact that he doesn’t have a lot of wear on his tires. They spoke highly of him after the signing and spoke about him as he would be the feature back.
But the draft brought the Bears David Montgomery. Matt Nagy has said that they will have more of a committee approach at running back. Tarik Cohen will get quite a few carries, Mitch Trubisky will use his legs frequently, and new signing Cordarrelle Patterson will also see some carries.
As much as those players will be taking away carries, you still have to expect Montgomery and Davis to get a good amount of the carries.
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The Bears didn’t trade up in the draft to select Montgomery to have him ride the pine. The only way Davis becomes a feature back is due to injury or if Montgomery is just dreadful.
So what does that mean for Davis? From a fantasy perspective, it means that in standard leagues, Davis probably won’t provide too much value to fantasy owners.
You should expect Davis to be involved in the offense, but not enough to make a legitimate impact on your squad. He would make a very good handcuff to Montgomery owners, but traditionally, it doesn’t make too much sense to handcuff someone who shouldn’t be any more than your RB2.
Handcuffs are usually reserved for high-end RB1s like Saquon Barkley or Todd Gurley, not an unproven rookie like Montgomery.
Davis should remain on the wire in all leagues that are 12 teams or less. A bench spot might be warranted in 14 team leagues and he absolutely warrants a roster spot in massively deep dynasty leagues.
But in basic fantasy, if you are looking for a sleeper in Mike Davis, he’s only going to get you value if Montgomery isn’t in his way.
Mike Davis 2019 stat projections- 75 carries, 325 yards, 4.3 yards per carry, 3 TDs; 12 receptions, 85 yards, 7.1 yards per catch, 0 TD