Over or Under: 6 sacks for Akiem Hicks in 2019

Will Akiem Hicks record more or less than six sacks in 2019?

What stats will your favorite player put up in 2019? Every year ESPN comes out with their first batch of 2019 stat projections. So, every year we are here to pick them apart. To be fair, in the series we did last season, the projections turned out to be reasonable, and a lot of players fell within a close area to the projection.

So, when Mike Clay released his stat projections for 2019, it was certainly worth looking into.

Everyone is going to look over the offense, but what stands out is Akiem Hicks with six sacks in 2019. He was given 55 tackles, which is about on par with his last three seasons in Chicago, as he recorded 54, 55, and 55 tackles per year.

However, in his three years with the Bears, he also recorded 7, 8.5, and 7 sacks respectively. Even last season Clay gave Hicks 7 and hit it on the dot. Hicks was not going to fall off in tackles, so what is for the decline in sacks? Is the drop off warranted?

On the surface, it seems unlikely. One thing that cannot be taken into account in a statistical analysis like this is scheme fit and continuity playing with each other. Yes, Akiem Hicks had Khalil Mack next. to him.

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However, Mack was added right before Week One, and the two figured things out on the fly. That does not mention that Mack missed time during the season. Hicks and Mack figured it out, they are great players. However, it is fair to think that these two are just getting started. With a full offseason to learn each other’s tendencies, and a year to grow off of playing on the same field, there is a case to be made that he could get back to 8.5 next season. Hicks is entering his age 30 season and has generally been healthy. The case against him is hard.

Of course, there can be some cases made against Hicks. To start, Clay has the defense as a whole regressing. They did lose two starters, a defensive coordinator and were playing at an all-time pace last season. The familiarity that Hicks and Mack gained can be subtracted by the new scheme as Clay has the Bears losing eight sacks overall from the past year. Even if the drop is not that high, Chuck Pagano may blitz more, and leave less cleanup duty for Hicks.

Aside from blitzes the progression of Bilal Nichols could impact his sack total, or Mack may just beat Hicks to the punch.

So, with similar stats across the board, it could be fair to say that it would not take a Hicks drop off to see a small decline in stats. However, six feels closer to the floor than the ceiling for what he can do. Expect Hicks to range from 6-9 sacks in 2019.