Entering his second season with the Chicago Bears, what should fantasy owners expect from Trey Burton?
Trey Burton made a national name for himself in the Super Bowl after successfully completing the “Philly Special.” Fantasy owners were keyed in on Burton long before that Super Bowl moment.
Burton was the highly efficient backup tight end to Zach Ertz. Some fantasy owners loved the utilization of the tight end in the Philadelphia Eagles offense that they handcuffed Ertz with Burton.
The Chicago Bears saw TE1 potential in Burton and paid him like one prior to the 2018 season. Burton’s first year in Chicago saw an up and down year.
In 2016 and 2017, Burton had 575 yards receiving and 6 TDs. In 2018 he had 569 yards and 6 TDs. Burton basically matched 2 years worth of production in Philly in his first season in Chicago.
While that’s a significant jump in production, is it as much as the Bears had hoped for?
In the first half of the season, Burton had 371 yards on 29 catches with 5 TDs. Had Burton kept that pace up, he would have finished the year with almost 750 yards and 10 TDs. That would have caused fantasy owners to do backflips. But Burton cooled off in the second half.
In the second half of the season, Burton had 198 yards on 25 catches with only 1 TD. That type of production doesn’t get the job done.
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When you take a closer look at Burton’s game logs, you’ll see someone who pretty consistently averaged around 30 yards a game. Burton had a massive game of 126 yards against the New England Patriots, 86 yards against the Tampa Bay Bucs and 55 yards against the Arizona Cardinals. All 3 of those games were in the first half of the season thus the differences in the first half/second half split.
In those three games, Burton tallied 267 yards. In the other 13 games, he tallied 302. That means Burton gave fantasy owners 3 big games, and in the other games, he averaged 23 yards per game, which basically means Burton was a touchdown vulture in the other 13 games.
With the expected development of Anthony Miller, adding Riley Ridley and David Montgomery, as well as expecting bigger things from a healthier Allen Robinson, it’s hard to expect a bigger season from Burton in 2019.
Burton will have a couple of big games but should have a 3 receptions for 30 yards-type game most weeks. That’s not tremendous output, but in a position that’s thin every year, that still qualifies Burton for a low-end TE1.
If you do invest in Burton as your TE1, don’t slack on your TE2. You’ll want a high-quality TE2 that you can utilize and play the matchup game with Burton and your TE2 each week.
Fantasy owners that are expecting a big breakout year from Burton in 2019 will most likely be disappointed. Burton is a reliable low-end TE1 and would be a tremendous TE2 but with all the weapons the Bears have, plus the rest of the team having another year in Matt Nagy’s system, Burton’s numbers should be similar to what they were in 2018. They might even drop some.
Trey Burton 2019 stat projections– 50 receptions, 525 yards, 10.5 yards per catch, 6 TDs