Over/Under 65% completion rate for Mitch Trubisky

Is 65% a strong projection for Mitch Trubisky 2019 completion rate, or is that a bit high?

Mitch Trubisky took an impressive step forward from a 59.4% completion passer to a 66.6% completion rate in year two. This can be attributed to a variety of reasons, but the impressive jump has led to many calling for regression.

Sure, Trubisky is not going to see another 7% increase to put him over 73%. However, many see him dropping closer to a mix between his rookie year and year two. Mike Clay, who does the ESPN fantasy projections did not go quite that far, but he does see a small step back. After a 7.2% increase, he sees Trubisky going 1.2% back and ending as a 65% completion passer.

The fact of the matter is that Trubisky may see his completion rate fall, but that would not concern him or Matt Nagy. Nagy has been very open that he wants Trubisky to let it rip and take shots. He wants to see the yards per attempt go up, the touchdowns go up, and thus points that lead to wins.

If Trubisky is concerned with checking down to improve his completion rate, he is not quite playing to the Chicago Bears offensive identity.

With that in mind, this projection is fair. Last year Trubisky was an aggressive passer who shot for the sticks. If he continues this aggression, his completion rate may go down a touch year by year, but the big plays will come more often.

Many Bears fans will scoff at the idea of regression, and for sure the national pundits will point to a drop in completion percentage as a reason to panic. However, if you listen to Matt Nagy describe his offense you know that this is something he is not worried about.