Chicago Bears: Measuring the loss of Akiem Hicks

Akiem Hicks has missed seven games this season for the Chicago Bears. His loss has been very noticeable.

The Chicago Bears offense has not been nearly as good as the year before. This has hindered any chance this team has had at winning games in the past month or so. Still, while the defense is not to blame in any way, they are not quite at the dominant level of a season ago.

Last year, they were one of the best defenses of all-time, so that would be hard to replicate. Still, injuries to players such as Akiem Hicks and now Danny Trevathan have been noted.

Hicks played the Chicago Bears first three games before missing Week 4. He came back for Week 5 but played in just eight snaps before his season ended with a reaggregation.

While the three-game sample size of Hicks is small, there has been a notable drop off in defensive play since the injury.

Run defense

In the three games in which Akiem Hicks has started and finished, the Bears have allowed just 39% of runs to be successful. That number shoots up to 49% in the seven games without Hicks. While the three-game sample is small, the Bears allowed 42% of runs to be successful in 16 last season. That is much closer to what was going on with Hicks on the field.

It is clear Hicks has an impact, especially because explosive runs are still being given up at the same rate. They allow 8% of runs to be explosive this year, same as last year. The big drop off comes in their power run rates and stuffed run rates.

Power runs are situations of third or fourth down and two yards or less to go. This also includes any runs from the two-yard line in. Stuffed runs are runs that go for no gain or a loss.

The Bears ranked fourth in power run success last season while ranking 14th in stuffed rate. Both quality performances. This year, they are down to 18th in power success and 28th in stuffed runs. They dropped 14 spots in both over one year.

The lack of power from Hicks is being felt.

Pass Rush

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Not only does Hicks have an impact on the run game, but he has also been a strong upfield penetrator against the run. In the first three games this year the Bears had 11 sacks. That includes sacking Aaron Rodgers five times. In the seven following they had 14.

The impact is not only in his pass rush, but in the attention, he takes away. Khalil Mack has been much quieter because teams focus on him rather than worrying about Hicks.

Mack had three sacks with Hicks on the field and has 2.5 in the seven games he has been out. Two of his five tackles for loss and three of his eight quarterback hits have come with Hicks in the game.

Even Leonard Floyd has two of his three sacks with the benefit of Hicks taking up blockers. Two of his three tackles for loss and three of his seven hits on the QB were in the Hicks games as well.

This is not to say that Hicks is solely responsible for these players’ struggles and that the defense would be elite again with Hicks. However, it is dramatic to see a defense that was consistently getting pressure while stopping the run to dramatically drop off at such a rate. Some of his certainly have to do with Hicks, a player who more than proved his value in 2019.

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