Can we please stop comparing Mitchell Trubisky to this quarterback?

By the Numbers

Here is the most important way to determine if Mitchell Trubisky is the next Blake Bortles. We look at the numbers. I used to be more of a numbers-driven guy when it came to my NFL analysis. This is how I approached all of my fantasy football and daily fantasy sports analysis. However, I have come to realize that the numbers are not the holy grail of NFL analysis. Tape and stats must be combined.

When you watch Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky, the “just” missed passes (usually overthrows) show up consistently between both. This is the only place I see a comparison between the two on the field and quite frankly, Trubisky does a better job managing his game. This alone sets him apart from Bortles. Furthermore, the numbers back up this argument.

Before we decipher the individuals, let us look a the team records. With Bortles under center, the Jaguars went 24-49 during his five years in Jacksonville. That is a .329 winning percentage. In Trubisky’s three years in the league, he has gone 22-16. Even if the Bears lose the last three games this year, he’d have a 22-19 record and a .537 winning percentage. Currently, his winning percentage is .579 for his career.

Now before you get all, but the NFL is a team sport and the defense is what drove up his winning percentage. I have to put that stat out there since Trubisky seems to take most of the heat when the team loses, it is only fair he gets his fair share of the credit too.

Alright, now for the individual stats. First up is completion percentage. Blake Bortles has a career completion percentage of 59.3 for his career. His best year came in 2018 at 60.3 percent. Mitchell Trubisky, on the other hand, has a career completion percentage of 63.8 and his best season was 2018 with a 66.6 percent completion percentage.

Now let us look at scoring versus turnovers. Blake Bortles scored 111 touchdowns combined through the air and on the ground over his five years in Jacksonville. This equates to 1.42 touchdowns per game played (78). Mitchell Trubisky has scored 54 touchdowns during his yet to be completed three-year career. This also equates to 1.42 touchdowns per game played (38).

Hey, I found something to fit the narrative that they are the same. Before the analysts at sites like Pro Football Focus get too excited, let us take a look at the turnovers. Bortles has thrown 75 interceptions and lost 33 fumbles for a total of 108 turnovers. That is a 1.02 touchdown to turnover ratio. Trubisky has thrown 27 interceptions and lost 10 fumbles for a total of 37 turnovers. He has a 1.50 touchdown to turnover ratio. A significant difference here, no?

The numbers just keep going in Trubisky’s favor. Quarterback rating is one way of measuring a quarterback’s combined success. Bortles has a career quarterback rating of 80.6 percent. Trubisky has a career quarterback rating of 87.4 percent. This number is heavily lowered because of his rookie season where he only had a 77.5 percent rating.

Furthermore, the best season Bortles ever had in regards to quarterback rating was 88.2 and that was inflated as we already pointed out by Allen Robinson who had a career year despite little help from Bortles. Trubisky had a 95.6 percent quarterback rating in 2018 and currently has an 86.9 percent quarterback rating in a down season when his teammates lead the league with 21 drops.

I can keep going, but I think I have proven my point enough. Mitchell Trubisky is not the next Blake Bortles. He might not be Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes either, but he is better than most like to pretend. He is an average quarterback with still time to grow and succeed. Hopefully, he proves he has turned a corner over the last three games of the season.