Mitch Trubisky Advanced Stats Review 2020

What do the Advanced Stats say about the 2019 season for Mitch Trubisky?

Last season we looked into the advanced stats of Mitch Trubisky and his 2018 season and got a lot of positive feedback. With the help of PFF and NextGenStats, we were able to make some conclusions on what we saw in 2018. Looking back at that article you can see some of the potential issues that showed in 2018 and were magnified in 2019.

Here is an excerpt from our big conclusions.

"Trubisky is volatile. He can excel under pressure compared to the best but fail against the blitz in the same regard. It is clear that he has the accuracy to all levels of the field and can spread the ball around without being reliant on one pass catcher.However, he also has to be better before the snap at knowing not only who is blitzing, but where defenders are dropping into coverage. While he gets the ball out quick, his pre-snap diagnoses issues can show in his aggressive rate. While his arm talent helps him get away with it at times, he could slow down on the tight window throws, and this comes with knowing what he is seeing."

If you listened to Matt Nagy in his postseason press conference, he harped on some of the same things, showing that the same questions in 2018 lingered in 2019 without progression.

Now, when looking at what he did in 2019 compared to 2018, where were the drop-offs that showed the most?

Pressure

As we noted in last year’s article Trubisky was pretty good under pressure, but struggled against the blitz. The difference was that when he saw a blitz coming, his process would speed up and his mechanics would waver. However, if an offensive lineman got beat during a four-man rush, his process remained calm.

We noted how his performance under pressure was impressive compared to many quarterbacks. He came down to earth a bit in this area.

To start, it is worth noting that he was under pressure 32% of his dropbacks in 2019. In 2018 he was under pressure on 30% of his dropbacks, so it is true that the offensive line was not helping as much,

His completion percentage dropped 19.7% in 2018 when under pressure, but in 2019 it dropped 23.4%, a 3.7% completion rate drop off from year to year.

His yards per attempt increased 0.1 from year to, though. When he was able to beat pressure he made big plays. However, his touchdown rate dropped 0.1% under pressure this season and his interception rate increased 0.3%. Overall, it did not help that he was under pressure more often, but he was not as good under pressure himself.

Blitz

Last season teams blitzed Trubisky 27% of the time. This year, they only blitzed 26% of the time. This can be another indictment of the line, as his pressure rate increased, while teams blitz less. It can also speak to Trubisky, who struggled to identify blitzes last season. Combining that with James Daniels, who struggled to communicate with Rashaad Coward, and you had much more confusion up from.

Last year Trubisky saw a 12% decrease in completion rate when blitzed. This year that number was only down 9.7%. His yards per attempt also went up by 0.1 when blitzed this year.

However, last year his touchdown rate improved 2.7% when he was blitzed. This was traced back to gaudy red zone numbers. Those regressed to the mean and so did his touchdown rate. His touchdown rate was down 1.5% when blitzed, which is a 4.2% decrease year over year.

His interception rate also went up 0.6% from his 2018 numbers when blitzed compared to his 2019 numbers when blitzed. So, while he completed more pass against the blitz, an increase in turnover and decrease in touchdowns shows an overall worse season.

Directional passing

How did Trubisky look in terms of target depth and direction?

10 yards or less

Last year Trubisky had an 82% completion rate on throws ten yards or less. This year that number was down to 79%. He had 10 touchdowns and one interception in 2018, to nine touchdowns with three interceptions in 2019, a loss of one TD and two added picks.

He also dropped one full yard per attempt in this area. Dropping 3% in completion hurts, but the lack of yards and touchdowns has to be placed on skill player and play calling a bit.

10-20 yards

Trubisky had more attempts in this area of the field than in 2018. He had 87 in 2018 and 108 in 2019. However, he completed 54% of his passes in this area last year and 49.1% in 2019. He had five touchdowns and five interceptions in 2018. His interceptions dropped to two but his touchdowns fell to four.

His yards per attempt in this area increased from 7.6 to 7.9, so overall a mixed bag.

20+ yards

Trubisky completed 38% of his 82 deep attempts last year. This year he completed 34% on 64 attempts. His yards per attempt dropped from 12.2 to 10.4 as well.

On top of that, he went from eight touchdowns to seven interceptions down to four touchdowns and five interceptions.

Left

Trubisky regressed a bit throwing left as well. He fell from 64% last year to 62% this year, and 7.6 yards per attempt down to 7.4 yards per attempt. On top of that, he had eight touchdowns and two interceptions to his left. That fell to four touchdowns and three interceptions.

Middle

Last year he completed 74% to the middle of the field while this year that number went down to 70%. His yards per attempt when down from 7.8 to 6.8. However, while he threw seven touchdowns in 2018 and 2019 he threw six interceptions in 2018 and just two in 2019.

Right

To the left, right, or middle, he dropped statistically. He completed 65% in 2018 to the right and 63% in 2019. His yards per attempt went down from 7.6 to 5.2 and his touchdown went down from 10 to 6. Fortunately, his interceptions also went down from four to three.

Still, the fact that he struggled in all areas is a bit concerning as there is nowhere really to start the diagnosis.

Here is his directional passing chart.

Target Rate By Receiver

One of the biggest differences we noted from last year’s conclusions were that Trubisky did a good job spreading the ball around in 2018. That was not quite the case in 2018.

Allen Robinson saw a 20% target rate from Trubisky last year. That rate went up to 26% this year. Tarik Cohen also saw an increase in target rate. He went from a 16% target share to 18%. Of course, we know that his production dropped off, and that showed in passes less than ten yards by Trubisky.

However, Taylor Gabriel dropped from an 18% share to 15% and Burton dropped from 14% to 9%. Anthony Miller saw an uptick from 11% to 14%, but overall the team was much more reliant on Robinson and Cohen in 2019.

Time to Throw

As mentioned, Trubisky was pressured a bit more in 2019. However, he got the ball about equally as quick. His time to throw was 2.65 in 2018 and 2.64 in 2018. A slight decrease, arguably due to the pressure.

Air Yard Differential

Air yard differential looks into the difference between the number of yards the ball travels down the field per attempt to the number of air yards completed per reception.

His air yard differential was -2.7 in both seasons. However, in 2018 his average pass attempt was 8.8 yards down the field while his average air distance was 7.9 yards this year.

Air yards to sticks

This shows in his air yards to the sticks as well. He averaged 0.1 air yards to the sticks, which means his average pass was to the first down marker. This year his he had -1.2 air yard distance to the sticks. So, he was throwing short of the yard to gain line much more frequently.

Aggressiveness

Aggressiveness looks at the percentage of tight-window throws. Last year, he was on the high side at 17.7%, but this year his number jumped slightly to 17.8%. This shows that he did not show any progression in being able to get through his reads and understand what he was seeing. He made the same questionable decisions year after year.

Expected Completion Percent

Last year, Trubisky had a +1.4 expected completion percent. That meant that he was completing some passes that were tight-window throws and not expected to be completed. This year, he fell back down towards the mean with a -1% rate. So, essentially over two years, he has completed passes he is supposed to, and not the ones he is not.

Conclusions

The most troubling aspect here is that there is not one key thing to point to and improve. The same issues from last year are not only shown, but they are also arguably worse. He was essentially worse across the board, from weaknesses to strengths. All of the numbers seemed to see similar sort of decline too, with none being more glaring than others. It was just overall worse.

You can point to the offensive line, and the lack of playmakers and that is shown in his numbers. However, he himself did not take any steps forward in any areas either, and that is the main reason for the stagnant offense.

The play of Trubisky, independent of everything has to be under more scrutiny this offseason.