5 Reasons Andy Dalton fits Chicago Bears more than Derek Carr
Overall Production
It is worth repeating that Dalton was with a head coach who was not attached to him, lost the majority of his offensive line, and lost A.J. Green. With that in mind, Derek Carr was more productive in 2019. However, when looking at the bigger picture, they are pretty similar. Here are their career per-game numbers.
Pass Rush Rk Player From To Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Att Yds TD 1 Derek Carr 2014 2019 22.6 35.2 242.5 1.5 0.7 1.8 11.1 1.9 5.3 0.0 2 Andy Dalton 2011 2019 20.7 33.5 237.5 1.5 0.9 2.1 13.1 3.0 9.2 0.2
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/3/2020.
Over their careers, Carr has a 6.26 ANY/A while Dalton has a 6.06 ANY/A. If you take out that poor 2019 in an awful situation, his ANY/A goes up 6.17.
Carr is remembered for a 2016 season where he garnered MVP consideration, but the year before Andy Dalton was a potential MVP as well. He had the Bengals as a one-seed and broke his thumb. When comparing their career years, Dalton was a bit more efficient, but Carr had better accounting numbers due to more attempts.
Dalton hurt his thumb, while Carr injured his back in that career year. Neither got back to that peak. While Carr did do it one more year recently, here are their per-game numbers since their injuries ruined their career years.
Pass Rush Rk Player From To Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Att Yds TD 1 Derek Carr 2017 2019 22.7 33.6 246.8 1.3 0.7 2.1 12.4 1.6 4.1 0.1 2 Andy Dalton 2016 2019 21.4 34.9 242.6 1.4 0.8 2.5 16.5 2.4 8.1 0.1
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/3/2020.
Essentially the same. What can break the tie are the things mentioned previously. Dalton has been better at force-feeding star receivers such as Allen Robinson. Dalton is going to come at a lower price. Dalton has played in the playoffs.
Andy Dalton has also played in cold-weather games. Playing in the AFC North, Dalton has gone to Baltimore and won games in December. Derek Carr is 2-9 as a starter when the weather dips below just 50, and when it goes below 40, he is 0-4 with a 51% completion rate. We are not even talking 30 degrees.
Beyond that, Carr’s stats can be inflated. This goes back to why he has to be blamed for losing games. Carr gets relief for the Raiders losing because his defense has been weak. However, his stats also inflate because his team gets down.
His stats also can be inflated due to his ability to check the ball down. Go back to their career years; Dalton averaged 8.4 yards per attempt; Carr averaged 7, they had similar yards because Carr had so many more attempts.
Carr averages 6.2 intended air yards per pass attempt. Andy Dalton averages 8.1 yards down the field per attempt. Carr has an aggressiveness rating of 11%, while Dalton is at 20%. Only Duck Hodges was less aggressive than Carr in 2019.
Carr is conservative and completes easy passes while his team is trailing. That is how you accumulate good stat lines with such a lousy record. With that in mind, and considering the advantage in offensive line play, it is tough to say that Carr has really been better than Dalton.