Chicago Bears: Quarterback competition will be closer than you think

While much of the Chicago Bears fanbase believes Nick Foles will be the starter in 2020, advanced statistics indicate the quarterback battle will be tight.

Given Nick Foles‘ historic Super Bowl run in 2017 with the Philadelphia Eagles, much of the Chicago Bears media and fanbase seem to believe that he will be the starting quarterback in the upcoming season.

Foles was acquired last month in exchange for a compensatory fourth-round draft pick. His contract details surfaced not long after the trade became official. If he meets unknown performance standards, Foles can opt-out of his contract after this season, giving him the chance to garner a more lucrative contract in free agency.

The pressure is officially on Mitchell Trubisky, who was selected second overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. After mixed results in his rookie year, he led the Chicago Bears to an NFC North Division title in 2018 but regressed considerably last year. The offensive line didn’t do him any favors, nor did the injuries at the tight end position.

Still, Trubisky looked lost at times on the field, and it was an all too familiar feeling that the quarterback position remained unsettled. And while he’s expected to earn first-team reps in training camp, the quarterback competition is going to be closer than expected. I’m not entirely sure if that’s good or bad.

Down

1st Down

• Foles: 62.9 percent completion (%), 25/17 TD/INT, 7.5 yards-per-attempt (Y/A)
• Trubsiky: 64.1%, 20/10 TD/INT, 6.8 Y/A

2nd Down

• Foles: 65.8%, 26/6 TD/INT, 6.6 Y/A
• Trubisky: 65.1%, 12/11 TD/INT, 6.4 Y/A

3rd Down

• Foles: 56.6%, 17/11 TD/INT,  6.7 Y/A
• Trubisky: 61.5%, 14/7 TD/INT, 6.8 Y/A

4th Down

• Foles: 57.1%, 3/1 TD/INT, 8.2 Y/A
• Trubisky: 43.5%, 1/1 TD/INT, 5.4 Y/A

Field Position

Own 1-10

• Foles: 57.6%, 0/1 TD/INT, 6.8 Y/A
• Trubisky: 63.5%, 0/1 TD/INT, 6.8 Y/A

Own 1-20

• Foles: 66.0%, 1/5 TD/INT, 8.1 Y/A
• Trubisky: 69.4%, 0/1 TD/INT, 6.7 Y/A

Own 21-50

• Foles: 61.7%, 6/17 TD/INT, 7.1 Y/A
• Trubisky: 63.8%, 1/15 TD/INT, 7.4 Y/A

Opp 49-20

• Foles: 64.1%, 25/8 TD/INT, 7.6 Y/A
• Trubisky: 63.5%, 11/7 TD/INT, 6.8 Y/A

Red Zone

• Foles: 52.9%, 39/5 TD/INT, 3.7 Y/A
• Trubisky: 54.7%, 35/6 TD/INT, 3.1 Y/A

Opp 1-10

• Foles: 43.2%, 21/3 TD/INT, 2.0 Y/A
• Trubisky: 48.2%, 25/2 TD/INT, 2.0 Y/A

Blitz

• Foles: 74.6%, 4/0 TD/INT, 8.1 Y/A
• Trubisky: 54.6%, 11/5 TD/INT, 5.8 Y/A

Passing Grids

Foles - 2018

Trubisky - 2019

I have to be honest. When I first began this conquest, I expect Foles to stand out far and away, but I was floored by how close the two were in nearly every category. So, where might the Chicago Bears see the biggest difference between Foles and Trubisky?

The former has a proven track record of taking care of the ball much better than Trubisky in defensive blitz scenarios. However, Trubisky is, obviously, more mobile than Foles, which aids him in alluding pockets that have collapsed. Foles has been much better at the deep ball, which should help the Chicago Bears offense be less one-dimensional. Expect much more production from the tight end position with Nick Foles under center as well.

Given how comparable the two are, the quarterback competition is going to be closer than anticipated. It will likely be Trubisky’s job to lose, but it won’t matter who is under center if the Bears don’t improve the offensive line.