3. Lazor’s influence on play-action looks
Many of the most successful teams in the air-raid era have generally had one thing in common: they’ve always been among the top of the league in play-action frequency.
The Chicago Bears have not quite gotten with the program. There’s an underlying fear among NFL coaching staffs that using the play-action too often would nullify its effectiveness. With Chicago, there were two problems:
Here’s the big issue: for as anemic as the Bears’ passing attack was last season, they still threw the ball more than all but ten teams last season. Common sense tells us that you can’t bait the defense with the threat of a play-action without first establishing the threat of a dominant ground game.
Here’s where Lazor comes into play. Teams with Lazor have historically tried to shore up their passing attack by utilizing more of the play-action. For Trubisky, this is inspiring, as it will allow him to toggle between that and run-pass options, a setting he’s always been able to generate statistics in doing.
Consider the difference in numbers here, per ESPN Stats and Info:
Trubisky — overall in 2019-20:
— No. 18 in completion percentage
— No. 32 in yards per dropback
— No. 28 in QBR
Trubisky — play-action in 2019-20:
— No. 20 in completion percentage
— No. 22 in yards per dropback
— No. 27 in QBR
Those bottom numbers aren’t better by far, but they trend upwards. Even during last year’s struggles, Trubisky’s success on those rollouts and play-action passes Nagy discussed so often was noticed by those watching at home.
Here are my numbers on Mitch Trubisky vs the #Giants:
— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) November 25, 2019
Play-action and/or roll outs -- 19 plays, 12/18 for 184 yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 1 scramble for 2 yards
Drop backs & quicks (no play-action) -- 24 plays, 10/20 for 89 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 sacks, 2 scrambles for 17 yds
The hunch here is that it probably comes down to just how much trust Nagy is going to have in Lazor, as he oversees the run game. Chicago will be entering the 2020 season with each of the same running backs, which breeds continuity.
It shouldn’t be overstated — but unfortunately, it has been — how much better whoever is under center will look with actual tight ends on the field this year. Whether it is Jimmy Graham or Cole Kmet, the position has been upgraded. If all works out as it should, numbers point to Chicago’s former No. 2 pick having success if he wins the starting job.