Who are realistic NFL comparisons for Chicago Bears rookie Trevis Gipson
Anyone can call a player the next *insert all-time legend here*, but the reality is that there is a lot of variance in the middle. When looking at comparing a draft prospect, or a rookie like Trevis Gipson for the Chicago, we are looking for similar size, athletic traits, play style, production, and draft stock. That can give us a realistic look into the types of players and outcomes that we could see.
As we have gone through the draft prospects, we noted Martellus Bennett would be a great comparison for Cole Kmet, while Jaylon Johnson has a lot of similarities to Kyle Fuller. Will we find another former Bear, and who does Trevis Gipson compare to?
Gipson only did the bench press at the combine but was one of the few athletes to get a pro day workout before the NFL draft. He came in at 6’3″ and 261 pounds. Gipson ran a 4.69 40-yard dash, 34″ vertical, 122″ broad with 25 bench reps. He had a 7.57 3-cone, and a 4.33 short shuttle.
Adjusting these scores, he posted a 108-speed score, a 181 burst score, and an 11.9 agility score.
For this list, we looked into players from 6’2″ to 6’4″, from 252 to 269 pounds, with a 100-116 speed, score, 174 to 189 burst score, and agility score higher than 11.2
The agility score was the toughest to find, and it narrowed down the list significantly. This shows you that you need agility to play on the edge in the NFL. However, we wound up with a list of 2 athletes.
In order of production they are:
Oliver Vernon, Paul Kruger, Yannick Ngakoue, Jeremy Mincey, Alex Okafor, Kyle Emmanuel, Anthony Chickillo, Carl Lawson, Corey Lemonier, Ryan Russell, Ifedadi Ogendigbo, Oshane Ximines, Ryan LaCasse, Andrew Williams, Karon Riley, Khari Long, Ronnell Lewis, Charles Bennett, Shareef Miller, and Claude Harriott.
The first three names present a lot of upside, and all had the closest agility score to Gipson. They are the only players in the past 30 years to have an agility score near Gipson. Vernon had an 11.89, Kruger 11.99, and Ngakoue 11.85 agility score.
However, it is worth noting that Vernon was drafted 72nd, Kruger 57th, and Ngakoue, 69th. Gipson fell to pick 155. These three were more known and highly converted in NFL circles before the draft. They were rated as better prospects, more likely to succeed in the NFL.
The rest of the list had agility scores as high as 11.72, but only Andrew Williams higher than Gipson. If you exclude the list for just day three players, like Gipson, the list falls to 15.
Misses: Charles Bennett, Ronnell Lewis, Khari Long, Karon Riley, Ryan LaCasse, Claude Harriett, and Ryan Russell
Seven of the 15 players drafted on Day three, with similar athletic attributes to Gipson, turned out to be misses. If someone told you that there is a 47% chance Gipson, the 155th pick turns into a four-year depth player who walks away and does nothing more, that would be about on. Old school Bear fans will remember Riley.
Not know yet: Shareef Miller.
The Eagles picked Miller 138th in 2019. He was drafted to a deeper defensive line but struggled to get on the field as a rookie. Nonetheless, he entered year two hoping to contribute.
Best Case Outcomes: Jeremy Mincey, Alex Okafor, Kyle Emmanuel, Anthony Chickillo, Carl Lawson, Ifedi Odenigbo.
There is just as good of a chance he has upside like one of these rushers as he is a complete miss. You could argue that we are not sure precisely what Lawson and Odenigbo can be. Both were drafted in 2017. Lawson fell because of injury issues but posted eight sacks as a rookie. However, the injuries caught up to him as he had five and one sack in the following two years, respectively.
Ogenidgo spent one year on the practice squad, was rotational in year two, but put up seven sacks in year three. Their full stories are not yet written, but if the Bears can get one 7-8.5 sack year out Gipson, it would be a pretty stellar find.
Emmanuel retired after five years due to injury. Chickillo is currently a free agent after five years with the Steelers and a domestic dispute on his record.
Mincey was drafted 191st, he has similar athleticism, and while he went to Florida, the two produced similarly in college. Mincey played eight NFL seasons and had a career-high of eight sacks, but that came with his second NFL team. His best play came three years in.
Okafor had a very similar draft profile coming out. He was the 103rd pick in 2013. In his second NFL season, he hit eight sacks. He stuck around for four years with the Cardinals and had a seven-year NFL career to date, winning a Super Bowl in 2019 with Kansas City as a rotational pass rusher.
We have seen edge rushers with agility as questionable as Gipson succeed, but those rushers were more productive in college and had a smoother transition.
Four of the six hits had career highs of eight sacks, and the two that did not have an off of the field issue come up in their career. The problem is that all four had eight sacks one year, and were somewhat inconsistent around that. Most dropped below four sacks the following season.
That is what you should be expecting from Gipson, too, though. A fifth-round pick with projectable upside, Gipson is unlikely to get on the field much as a rookie. If Robert Quinn has a healthy 2020, he should be a similar role in 2021 as well.
He could benefit from playing across from Khalil Mack, and with two years to develop, there is a chance that he becomes a decent number two rusher with an eight sack season. However, his floor is as low as hardly seeing an NFL field, and his ceiling his capped around a depth player.
A Jeremey Mincey or Alex Okafor is a good comparison for the type of player you could come to expect from Trevis Gipson. Up and down production and potential as a rotational edge is essentially what he was drafted for. Fans should view Gipson as a big player who plays with hands, helps set the edge and can help clean up sacks across from a big name across from him.