Chicago Bears: Ted Ginn advanced stats review

What does Ted Ginn bring to the Chicago Bears roster?

The Chicago Bears signed Ted Ginn, a known commodity in the NFL after an illustrious career at Ohio State that led to him being a top ten pick. While his career did not hire live up to his pick status, he had a long career that has him in the NFL at age 35.

He is coming off of a healthy season where he caught 30 passes for 421 yards and two touchdowns. If he is looking to get on the Bears roster, he will be competing for the Taylor Gabriel role, which led to 29 receptions for 353 yards and four touchdowns. The two saw similar targets last year, so if Ginn slotted into that role, could he see similar or better results? What do the advanced stats say? With the courtesy of PFF and player profiler, we were able to take a look.

Target Rate

Ginn was targeted 56 times last year to just 48 for Gabriel. However, Gabriel saw 15% of the Bears targets while Ginn saw 10% of the Saints targets. Last year Gabriel saw 18% of the team’s targets while Ginn saw 15%. Believe it or not, both have been targeted deep down the field the same number of times as well. Both were 27-60 on passes 10 yards or further, Ginn had more deep yards, Gabriel had more touchdowns. It is fair to say that this could be a one-to-one replacement in the offense.

Yards per route run

Yards per route run is one of the more stable efficiency metrics. Over the past two years, Gabriel has 1.41 yards per route run, while Ginn has just 1.12. It is fair to note that Ginn is likely a decoy on the field more, but Gabriel is a bit more efficient on similar targets.

Average depth of target

Ginn’s average depth of target has been 16.4 over the past two years to just 11.8. This could do a bit with the efficiency as Gabriel saw the ball closer to the line, but also can indicate that if Ginn is in this role, he will have a chance to be a bit more efficient as well.

Drops and Contest Catches

Contested catches and drops can tell the story as well. Ginn had a 14.5% drop rate compared to just a 6.2% drop rate for Gabriel. If fans thought Gabriel was untrustworthy they need to be ready for Ginn. Still, Ginn had 5 contested catches last year, a 50% contested catch rate while Gabriel had just one, and a 20% rate. So Ginn has a little more boom in creating but bust in drops.

Separation and Cushion

It is not the separation that either is creating that is causing this. Ginn saw 4.9 yards of cushion pre-snap to 4.32 of Gabriel, a small difference. Ginn created 1.84 yards of separation per route run while Gabriel created 4.32 yards of separation. They are in a similar spot here. The difference is that he saw deeper targets, and more targets when he was not necessarily open.

Yards after the catch

Lastly, it is fair to say that Gabriel was more efficient after the catch as well. He averaged 2.8 yards after the catch per reception in 2018 and 3.3 in 2019. Ginn averaged 1.5 yards after the catch per reception last year and 2.4 the year before. For there careers, Gabriel averages 1.3 yards after catch per reception more than Ginn. He has consistently been better with the ball in his hands.

Overall

There are a lot of similarities to look into when comparing Ginn and Gabriel, and it is fair to think that he could step into the role. He is a bit older, and brings a bit less more after the catch, but has the same field-stretching ability.

Between Ginn, with his age and experience, and Darnell Mooney, the rookie with upside, the Bears feel like one of these two will be able to be their speed field stretcher on offense. We will see which one is able to stand out.