As the Chicago Bears 2020 season approaches, where does Tarik Cohen’s fantasy football value stand?
The Chicago Bears are my passion, but for a long time my secondary passion surrounding football was fantasy football. Going forward, at this point in the year I am going to start running through players on the Chicago Bears roster and explain what round the player should be drafted, the player’s ceiling value, the player’s floor value and for dynasty fantasy leagues if the player is a buy low or sell high candidate.
The Chicago Bears offense was anything but good in 2019. Tarik Cohen‘s production also took a major hit last year after having a solid 2018 season. The thing is, Cohen’s floor is literally what took place in 2019. There is no way the Chicago Bears offense could be any worse in 2020 than it was in 2019, could it?
Ryan Pace addressed major issues outside of offensive line personnel. They tried to find a new right guard in Germain Ifedi and hope that Jason Spriggs can step in if Charles Leno or Bobby Massie fall short of expectations. If nothing else he can be the swing tackle.
With the addition of Jimmy Graham and Nick Foles, the team cannot be any worse that it was in 2019. Not to mention the drat pick of Cole Kmet in the second round. This should help open up the offense and give Cohen more open space on his wheel routes and dump offs in the flat.
Cohen is ranked 106th in FantasyPros ECR rankings. That makes him an eighth-round pick in most 12-team fantasy league formats. His value jumps up some in full points-per-receptions (PPR) leagues, but I would not take him any higher than this despite his ceiling being better than his ranking.
Although I believe 2019 is Cohen’s floor value, I am not sure he could do any better than his 2018 season. Could 2018 be his ceiling or was that an outlier? In 2018, Cohen caught five touchdowns and ran in another three. He had 1,169 yards from scrimmage too.
Looking at 2020, I think that production is a little too steep. Cohen was the RB17 in half-point PPR that season. I think his ceiling is between RB20 and RB25 if I am being unbiased. The only way he exceeds this floor and is worth drafting earlier is if you are awarded return yards.
After eight combined touchdowns in 2018, Cohen had only three in 2019. His all-purpose yards fell from 1,169 to only 669. I just cannot see that number getting worse unless he misses time due to injury. What makes Cohen easy to gauge is that his 2019 season is his absolute worst and clearly 2018 was his absolute best. His real value will fall somewhere in the middle.
Buy Low, Sell High or Hold
Cohen could be a buy-low candidate. Many will look at last season and think that will be Cohen’s norm. If you can get him for a late 2021 draft pick or a cheap amount of auction dollars I would do so now. He definitely is not a sell-high candidate and if you already own him I would just hold him until his value shoots up, then sell him.