As the Chicago Bears 2020 season approaches, where does Jimmy Graham’s fantasy football value stand?
The Chicago Bears are my passion, but for a long time my secondary passion surrounding football was fantasy football. Going forward, at this point in the year I am going to start running through players on the Chicago Bears roster and explain what round the player should be drafted, the player’s ceiling value, the player’s floor value and for dynasty fantasy leagues if the player is a buy low or sell high candidate.
When it comes to rankings and fantasy data, I will be using FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and FFToday with half-point scoring.
2020 Outlook
Matt Nagy’s offense is centered around the tight end position. Many casual fans and even lazy analysts are saying how Jimmy Graham is washed up and was not worth the money his two-year, $16 million dollars deal. The thing is, after watching his film, Graham is being overlooked.
Graham fits the mold of the “U” (move) tight end that Nagy needs in his system. When it comes to tight ends and Aaron Rodgers, he just does not use them like most quarterbacks. There were many plays where Graham was either open but not Rodgers’ target or he was used in another manner. Even looking at Matt LaFleur’s offenses, the tight end was never the focal point.
This will be the first time since Graham was with the New Orleans Saints that he will be the focal point in an offense. He might not be the top target (Allen Robinson will always be), but he will be used more this year than he has in years past. He will not be as good as he was while in New Orleans, but to think he will just be as good or worse than he has been in Green Bay makes little sense.
Target Round
Looking at the ECR ranking for tight ends, FantasyPros has Jimmy Graham ranked as the TE30. His overall ranking is 253, making him essentially not draftable in 12-team leagues. If you can get him towards the end of your fantasy draft, I would take him. He will be an absolute steal for your fantasy team.
Ceiling Value
As the title says, I think Jimmy Graham’s ceiling value is as a top-10 tight end. In 2018, Graham finished as the 13th tight end in fantasy. Last year he ended up being 21st. With Matt Nagy’s offensive system, Graham should have no problem improving his production.
Last season was awful for the tight ends in Chicago, but that was because of injuries to Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen proving he is a bust. If we take a look back at 2018, Burton ended the season as the seventh-best tight end in fantasy. Graham should have no issues repeating that performance in 2020.
Floor Value
Even if we go off of Graham’s 2019 season, he came in as the 21st tight end in fantasy. Although I think he will have a more prominent role in Chicago, the chances of him falling below his performance last year is laughable to me. Recency bias playing too big of a factor in the potential performance of Graham and even the Chicago Bears offense.
Buy Low, Sell High or Hold
Definitely a buy-low candidate for me. In fact, as I was writing this, I went and traded.a second-round pick in dynasty for Graham because my best tight end on that roster is Tyler Eifert. Yuck! If I can get a year or two out of Graham while rookie Cole Kmet comes into his own, I will be happy. He is also a player I would hold. His value is too low to be any type of sell-high player.