As the Chicago Bears 2020 season approaches, where does David Montgomery’s fantasy football value stand?
The Chicago Bears are my passion, but for a long time, my secondary passion surrounding football was fantasy football. Going forward, at this point in the year I am going to start running through players on the Chicago Bears roster and explain what round the player should be drafted, the player’s ceiling value, the player’s floor value and for dynasty fantasy leagues if the player is a buy low or sell high candidate.
The Chicago Bears running game has been abysmal for the last couple of years. Is this a Matt Nagy issue? Is it a David Montgomery issue? What about a problem with the offensive line. Honestly, it is not just one person to blame here. In 2019, the Bears were 29th in run DVOA. For comparison sake, the team was 19th in 2018.
David Montgomery had a solid season in 2019, but it was not as good as I expected. He finished with 869 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He added another touchdown and 185 yards through the air. The problem is that it was still not good enough. He only averaged 3.7 yards per carry.
The thing is, with a new offensive line coach, a new run blocking scheme and some slightly different personnel, Montgomery should have an easier time in 2020.
Looking at the FantasyPros ECR, Montgomery is currently the RB25 and 53rd overall. This would mean he is projected to go between the fourth and fifth rounds of a 12-team league. Looking at some of the other running backs around Montgomery, it is hard to argue with the ranking. He is one below Devin Singletary and in the same tier as guys like James Conner, Melvin Gordon, Chris Carson and David Johnson.
I would definitely have him above Johnson in my rankings, but with the current offensive line and lack of changes elsewhere on offense, Montgomery is where he should be.
My faith for Montgomery has not waivered. I believe he has the skills needed to become a top-10 back in the NFL. He should see over 1,000 yards every season and eight-plus touchdowns per year. However, if I am being unbiased his ceiling is more like top-15 for 2020. This makes him an RB2 with fringe RB1 upside. The Chicago Bears clearly still believe in him since they have not brought in anyone else outside of an undrafted free agent.
Honestly, his 2019 season is going to be his floor. If you can get him any round after the fourth, he will return solid value. In 2019, Montgomery was RB25, the same as his 2020 ECR. I am going to go out and try to lock him up in the third round in most redraft leagues because as I said, I think he finishes as a top-15 running back.
Buy Low, Sell High or Hold
Seeing this is only his second year, I do not think many people will give him up for cheap. You definitely could not sell him high right now either. Therefore, the only thing to do is hold him, unless he is somehow used in a multiple-player trade package.