As the Chicago Bears 2020 season approaches, where does Nick Foles’ fantasy football value stand?
The Chicago Bears are my passion, but for a long time, my secondary passion surrounding football was fantasy football. Going forward, at this point in the year I am going to start running through players on the Chicago Bears roster and explain what round the player should be drafted, the player’s ceiling value, the player’s floor value and for dynasty fantasy leagues if the player is a buy low or sell high candidate.
This has to be one of the hardest fantasy values to gauge. Whenever you have a quarterback competition heading into the regular season, the true value is hard to determine. Mitchell Trubisky is a young player who has shown he can win in the league despite issues with inexperience. Nick Foles is a journeyman who has a Super Bowl ring and MVP in his trophy case.
The question is, who will be the starter come Week 1 of the 2020 season? Will that player hold the job throughout the year? Personally, my money is on Mitchell Trubisky to start, but I am not certain he will maintain the job all year. Either way, the competition drives down the initial value of both players and both will likely go undrafted in most 12-team redraft leagues.
Whoever ends up under center is worth owning in most leagues though. The Chicago Bears might not have the most electric offense, but the hope is that what we thought we would see in 2019 finally clicks into gear in 2020. If that happens, Foles or Trubisky should be a top 15 quarterback.
Unless you are playing dynasty, Nick Foles is not a guy worth drafting. He is ranked by FantasyPros ECR as QB31. In a 12-team league, most teams will only draft one quarterback. Even if every team owned two, you are looking at the top 24 quarterbacks. Foles is a guy to just throw on your watch list and see what happens. Too much uncertainty is in play to risk taking him even in the later rounds. Instead, go after a guy like Derek Carr who is QB26 and has more upside.
Another very difficult thing to predict. If Foles wins the starting spot, he clearly would have a chance at being a top 15 quarterback in 2020. He is not going to beat out the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson or even Matt Ryan.
If he plays all 16 games, Foles has a chance to be the first Bears quarterback to throw for over 4,000 yards. A stat that is quite depressing. I would expect 4,200 yards, 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions to be his ceiling.
His floor value is basically nonexistent. If Trubisky wins the starting job and holds it, Foles’ value is basically trash in fantasy. There is not much more to say here about it.
Buy Low, Sell High or Hold
For dynasty purposes, Foles is not very valuable. If you think he is going to win the starting spot and hold it for 16 games, then you should try trading for him. Honestly, I would prefer targeting Trubisky as a buy-low candidate over Foles. Neither Bears quarterback is a sell-high candidate. More than likely, if you own either of the two you are going to hold onto them and see how things shake out this offseason and throughout the 2020 regular season.