If the Chicago Bears extend Allen Robinson this offseason, what would the contract look like?
Allen Robinson will enter the 2020 season as his last under contract with the Chicago Bears. As the only consistent piece of the offense in 2020, it is fair to think that the team is going to want to bring him back.
However, there are multiple players out there who the Bears are going to want to watch, and try to get Robinson extended before. If they do not, Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, and Stefon Diggs all may up the price tag for Robinson when they sign a new extension this offseason.
Considering a new CBA at the same time as a murky salary cap due to COVID-19, it is hard to project where the market is for wide receivers. As each one of those four signs, we will find much more information on what a Robinson extension would look like. Still, looking into recent contracts, we can at least start to gauge the numbers that are being discussed.
Robinson is 26 now but is going to be 27 when the season starts. He is the same age as Mike Evans and came from the same draft class. Evans is in a higher volume offense but has been slightly more productive throughout their careers.
Evans signed a 5-year, $82.5 million extension averaging $16.5 million per year and $55 million guaranteed. That may be the range of deal that Robinson could look at, but there are two caveats. Evans signed the agreement in 2018, so he has three years at $49.5 million left. Also, with the salary cap deals have beat the Evans contract since he signed it. Still, that three-year, $49.5 million number is worth keeping in mind as Evans will be playing his age 27-29 years on that deal.
A few months after Evans, Odell Beckham, from the same draft class as both receivers signed an extension to top Evans. Beckham is a year older than Robinson but has been productive through their careers.
Rece Rece Rece Rk Player Rec Yds TD 1 Odell Beckham Jr. 6.2 86.8 0.6 2 Allen Robinson 4.9 66.0 0.5
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/12/2020.
Beckham signed a 5-year, $90 million deal with $18 million per year and $41 million guaranteed. He signed through his age 30 season, where Evans is signed through age 29, but Beckham has three years, at $54 million.
Michael Thomas just so happens to be older than Robinson. However, last offseason, he signed a five year $96.25 million extension that saw $61 million guaranteed and $19.25 million per year. Thomas was in college when he was the age that Robinson got drafted, so below, you can see the two in comparison from age 23-26.
Rece Rk Player From To Rec Yds TD 1 Allen Robinson 2016 2019 4.9 60.9 0.4 2 Michael Thomas 2016 2019 7.5 87.5 0.5
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/12/2020.
Thomas is more productive, but knowing that he is older, and signed a contract a year earlier, this may be closer proximity to the contract Robinson gets than some may think.
Amari Cooper is ten months younger than Robinson, but he did sign the most recent contract extension. He signed a $100 million deal worth $20 million per year, and $64 million guaranteed.
Cooper is entering year six while Robinson is entering year seven, still, below is a comparison of the two through six years. They are about the same.
Rece Rece Rece Rk Player Rec Yds TD 1 Amari Cooper 4.6 66.2 0.4 2 Allen Robinson 4.6 64.3 0.5
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/12/2020.
So, the argument could be that Robinson was playing at a discount last season, and while he may get four years, instead of five that Cooper got, it could very well be at the same annual value.
Below is a look at the current contracts and years that each player saw.
Amari Cooper age 26-30, $100M total, $20M AAV, 60%GTD
Michael Thomas age 27-31, $77M total, $19.25M AAV, 63% GTD
Odell Beckham age 28-31 $54M total,$18M AAV, 46% GTD
Mike Evans age 27-30 $49.5M total, $16.5M AAV, 66% GTD
Robinson will be age 27, so a three to four-year extension would be more likely than the five years that Cooper saw.
He is likely to see somewhere between a three-year $54 million deal and a four year, $77 million deal. Only Odell Beckham got less than 60% of his total contract guaranteed as well. That would be about $33 million on a three-year deal, and $46 on a four-year deal.
Would you be interested in extending Allen Robinson to a four-year, $77 million deal with $46 million guaranteed?