The Chicago Bears are hoping that Akiem Hicks can return from his injury the same player as before. Can they expect the same level of play?
They always say father time is undefeated. That is why, while Chicago Bears can say that they were sucker-punched by an injury-riddle season from Akiem Hicks, that it was probably going to come sooner or later. Hicks had been dominant for three straight seasons for Chicago, racking up 23 sacks in three seasons.
However, in 2019 Hicks hit the always fearful age of 30. Being 30 is not old by any means, but in football, it does mean that you are likely starting to hit a peak athletically. Most athletes find their maximum years from age 25-30.
So, we have to remember that Hicks is not only coming back from an injury, he will now be age 31 when he gets back. It is fair to question just how productive he can be.
Hicks averaged over seven sacks and had an approximate value of over nine for each of those three seasons. To see if he can back to that level, we looked at how many players hit those peaks at each age, to see if there is a fall off.
When Akiem Hicks was 28, he was one of just 11 NFL players to ever have that sort of value and sack total playing the defensive end position. By age 29, he was one of just six NFL players all-time to put up those type of numbers. Hicks was joined by Mario Williams, Jurrell Casey, Kevin Carter, Geno Atkins, and Warren Sapp as the only athletes to put those numbers.
This is where the red flag has to come up. From 28 to 29, Hicks made the cut as the list dropped from 11 to 6. For age 30, the list dropped in half again from six to three. Of course, at age 30 is when Hicks missed most of 2019 with an injury. Only Sapp, Calais Campbell and Kyle Williams had that type of productivity at age 30.
When moving to age 31, only Calais Campbell put up those type of numbers. From 11 at age 28 to 6 at age 29, 3 at age 30, and just one player at age 31, you can really see that hitting that peak of age 30 starts to limit the upside.
Four sacks or more at age 30
There has to be a real question as to whether or not Hicks will have the same pass-rushing numbers at age 31 coming off of an injury as there he did during his prime years. Still, that does not mean he absolutely will not be successful. Seven sacks is a high bar to hit.
If Hicks were to still have an approximate value over nine, he would still be making an impact, but what if his sacks decreased a bit to four, rather than seven.
At age 28, 19 defensive linemen eclipsed four sacks with an AV of at least nine. At age 29, that number shrunk to 15, including Hicks. Still, 19 to 15 was not a steep drop off. Once again, the red flags have to be raised. At age 30, the number drops to seven defensive lineman all-time who have eclipsed just four sacks. Once again, the list drops in half at age 30, and Hicks is one of the many who cannot make that leap over the age of 30 apex.
There is one glimmer of hope here, though. Eight players hit that mark at age 31, the same number as the year before, and Richard Seymour.
Seymour had eight sacks at age 29 but dropped all the way down to four in his age 30 season, the same year the Patriots traded him. Seymour got back and had two seasons of prime play posting 5.5 and 6 sacks respectively at age 31 and 32 for the Raiders.
Seymour is the one case of an elite player struggling at age 30 and getting back to having two strong seasons. They were not quite as elite as his peaks, but they were above average, quality play.
Tackle for loss
One thing we are realizing is that the burst to get off of the ball starts to go at age 30. It is a young man’s game. However, while the burst to rush the passer may be gone, can the Bears still trust Hicks pure strength in the run game? Hicks also averaged over 10 tackles for loss in his three-year run.
We once again saw that number drop from 14 at age 28, to 10 at age 29, to six at 30, and just three at age 31. It is clear that the explosion to get into the backfield is overall limited.
No sacks or tackles for loss
One beacon of hope is just expecting consistent play from Hicks. The chances of him being a disruptor in the backfield consistently may be over, but he can still provide consistent value on the field. As noted, he averaged an AV over 9. Without any sacks or tackles for loss, that number went from 38 at age 28, to 35 at age 29, to 24 at age 30, another drop at that age marker. However, here we see 15 players at age 31, and 12 at age 32.
The odds are that Hicks is going to start to see a decline. The chances of him reaching his peak sack total or tackles for loss total again are low. He may see a sharp decline in those playmaking areas as his body starts to win the battle over father time.
However, there is a good chance that he can at least continue to be valuable, even if he is not nearly as productive as years past. He can provide consistent snaps. Still, entering his age 31 seasons, Bears fans and the front office needs to recognize the risk of assuming that he will be just as dominant as days past.