Chicago Bears edge rusher Khalil Mack career trajectory
Khalil Mack has been in the NFL for six seasons and two with the Chicago Bears. Who does he measure up to in comparison?
We all know that Khalil Mack is on track to being a legendary NFL player. Now that he has played six NFL seasons, we can start to look back and see how he compares to some of those greats at this point in their careers. What would he need to do to stay on pace with these players over their ascending careers, and how has his run with the Chicago Bears ranked amongst the NFL’s best?
When looking at NFL edge rushers who have played six NFL seasons, he ranks 15th All-Time in career sacks. When sorting by Approximate value only Von Miller, Derrick Thomas, and Lawrence Taylor have been more valuable.
Overall, there are five players who are still active who had similar starts to their careers as Mack. Justin Houston, Chandler Jones, Ryan Kerrigan, Clay Matthews, and Von Miller are all on the list of top 20 all-time pass rushers through six years.
Tack Tack Tack Tack Fumb Def Rk Player AV G Solo Ast QBHits TFL Sk FF Int 1 Justin Houston 52 75 245 41 86 72 60.0 9 3 2 Chandler Jones 56 87 215 104 118 81 64.0 16 1 3 Ryan Kerrigan 48 96 241 82 91 82 58.5 19 2 4 Khalil Mack 77 94 308 90 116 86 61.5 20 2 5 Clay Matthews 66 85 231 75 128 83 61.0 12 5 6 Von Miller 81 88 267 72 147 94 73.5 20 1
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/23/2020.
Von Miller really stands out and is the only rusher who can be argued as better than Mack. Still, that is an elite company. So, when projecting to a 2021 season, what type of seventh season did these players have? What would Mack need to do to keep pace?
Below you can see the seventh season stats for those five rushers.
Tack Tack Tack Tack Fumb Def Rk Player AV G Solo Ast QBHits TFL Sk FF Int 1 Justin Houston 8 15 46 13 20 16 9.5 0 0 2 Chandler Jones 8 16 38 11 18 13 13.0 3 0 3 Ryan Kerrigan 11 16 34 12 17 15 13.0 3 1 4 Clay Matthews 12 16 49 17 19 14 6.5 0 1 5 Von Miller 12 16 51 6 23 17 10.0 2 0
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/23/2020.
Matthews was asked to play a completely different role in his seventh season. However, three of the other four clear the 10 sack threshold, and Houston hit 9.5. Mack only had 8.5 sacks last year but should be in line to be right back in the 10-13 sack range, with 17-23 quarterback hits.
Khalil Mack with the Chicago Bears
Of course, the Bears have only been able to benefit from the last two seasons of that run. Below you can see how Mack ranks over the past two seasons compared to his peers. He is eighth in sacks, fifth in tackles, ninth in hits, and second in Approximate Value.
| Tack | Tack | Tack | Tack | Misc | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Sk ▼ | Comb | TFL | QBHits | AV |
| 1 | Chandler Jones | 32.0 | 102 | 24 | 44 | 20 |
| 2 | Danielle Hunter | 29.0 | 142 | 36 | 41 | 29 |
| 3 | T.J. Watt | 27.5 | 123 | 26 | 57 | 25 |
| 4 | Myles Garrett | 23.5 | 73 | 23 | 47 | 19 |
| 5 | Von Miller | 22.5 | 94 | 24 | 46 | 25 |
| 6 | Shaquil Barrett | 22.5 | 86 | 25 | 44 | 14 |
| 7 | Za’Darius Smith | 22.0 | 100 | 27 | 62 | 18 |
| 8 | Khalil Mack | 21.0 | 94 | 18 | 32 | 28 |
| 9 | Frank Clark | 21.0 | 78 | 22 | 41 | 19 |
| 10 | Justin Houston | 20.0 | 81 | 21 | 30 | 13 |
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/22/2020
He is up there with the best pass rushers in the NFL but has not set himself apart as the best edge rusher in the NFL hands down. His great, not elite 2019 campaign left him a few sacks behind names like Watt, Hunter, and Jones over that span.
Age 27-28
Mack has played six NFL seasons but also is age 28. Looking through NFL history, below is a list of players who had the most comparable age 27 and age 28 seasons to Mack. These are the types of players the Bears have gotten in production.
Tack Tack Tack Tack Fumb Fumb Def Rk Player AV G Solo Ast QBHits TFL Sk FF FR Int 1 Elvis Dumervil 21 30 63 33 39 16 20.5 6 1 0 2 Everson Griffen 19 31 75 27 54 28 22.5 2 0 0 3 Ryan Kerrigan 17 32 59 16 37 30 20.5 4 0 0 4 Chris Long 16 32 58 15 31 28 20.0 1 2 0 5 Khalil Mack 28 30 77 17 32 18 21.0 11 3 1 6 Robert Mathis 14 29 60 24 29 16 21.0 10 3 0
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/23/2020.
We once again see Ryan Kerrigan, who has had an underrated NFL career. Another interesting name is Robert Mathis, who just so happened to play in a Chuck Pagano defense later into his career. That seemed to help him, as Mathis played through age 35, and was putting up elite numbers at age 33.
Below, we look at just the age 29 season of each of the players below. Long got hurt at age 29 but did bounce back to have more strong seasons as a rotational pass rusher.
Tack Tack Tack Tack Fumb Def Rk Player AV G Solo Ast QBHits TFL Sk FF Int 1 Elvis Dumervil 3 15 18 13 15 8 9.5 2 0 2 Everson Griffen 12 16 36 12 22 9 8.0 2 0 3 Ryan Kerrigan 11 16 34 12 17 15 13.0 3 1 4 Chris Long 3 6 5 0 1 3 1.0 0 0 5 Robert Mathis 9 16 44 16 19 10 11.0 1 0
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/23/2020.
Beyond Long, we once again see that ten sacks are still an expectation for Mack, as most of his peers have hit that point during their age 29 seasons.
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Another thing to note is that Dumervil played until he was 33, the same age as Long. Griffen is 32 and is currently a free agent. Kerrigan is just 31, and Mathis played through age 35, but it does appear that the age 32-33 season could be when the wheels start to slow down for Khalil Mack. Fortunately for the Bears that is about four years away.