More play action is key to Mitch Trubisky bouncing back

If Mitch Trubisky is going to bounce back as a starter in 2020, the Chicago Bears are going to need to run more play action

While everyone has decided that Nick Foles is a better quarterback than Mitch Trubisky, one of the biggest things that are not taken into account with Foles is that he has not played a 16 game season in his career. Whether he wins the job in camp or not, there is a good chance that we will see Mitch Trubisky start for the Chicago Bears at some point in 2020.

The progression of Trubisky is going to come down to him, but we all know that the play calling was not helping him in 2019 either. If the Chicago Bears are going to make the most out of Trubisky’s chance as a starter one of the biggest differences that will have to come is more play action.

Completion Rate by Target Depth

Using sharpfootballstats.com, we were able to look into Trubisky’s situational stats, and how that affected his completion rate by depth. While every quarterback seems to do better with play-action, Trubisky is better than most. In the chart below, you can see that when the Chicago Bears called play-action, he was completing passes at a higher rate than average over the past two seasons.

"View post on imgur.com"

This is not just propped up by 2018, either. Below, you can see his 2019 completion rate by target depth. He was just as good in 2019 working off of play-action as he was in 2018.

"View post on imgur.com"

On the contrary, we can see the difference in what happens when there is no play action. Within five yards of the line of scrimmage, Trubisky is okay without play-action. However, when Trubisky is not aided by play action, and when he has to throw down the field, he becomes a disaster.

"View post on imgur.com"

Again, you can see this was a huge issue in 2019. We have known that Trubisky is athletically talented enough to start in the NFL. The issue with him is seeing and reacting. This shows that when Trubisky has to drop back, and does not have the help of misdirection, he struggles to know what he is seeing.

"View post on imgur.com"

Play Action Rate

In 2019, Trubisky saw a 3.5% rise in completion rate and a 6.5% rise in 2018 when the Bears called play-action, according to PFF. That ranks 12th, and 7th in the NFL respectively. He saw a 2.5 yards per attempt increase in 2019 when play action was called which ranked fourth in the NFL.

It is clear that Trubisky is not just better with and without play-action, it is night and day. So the question is, where is the play-action?

In 2018, the Bears called play-action on 22%, which ranked 24th in the NFL. Still, despite the Bears seeing his success with play-action, they called even less in 2019. The Bears called in 19.9%, which is just 29th in the NFL. He was successful in 2018 and they called it less. He even was better using play-action in 2019, and yet, once again, the Bears called it less.

Do not blame the run game

Many Chicago Bears fans clearly have the answer. With Rashaad Coward as the starter, and James Daniels and Cody Whitehair switching positions, the offensive line was in a funk. The Bears struggled to run the ball, how could they call more play-action?

Studies have shown that defenses will inherently key in on the run game, and that play-action does not need an established ground game for success. In fact, the ground game can benefit from a successful play-action game just as much a play-action game is benefited from the ground. If teams feared play action, the run game would be better off.

We know that play-action was successful, why not try it more often? Trubisky clearly excelled using it, and it could have helped open the run game. If Trubisky gets on the field in 2020, the Bears will need to recognize this and use his strengths to his advantage.