Chicago Bears: The real questions worth asking in the Foles vs. Trubisky battle
No. 2: Do last-minute depth chart decisions historically pan out?
I scoured the annals of NFL history to find situations where we got this deep into training camp (or usually, preseason play), and a starting QB wasn’t yet named. It’s almost unprecedented stuff, particularly at a position of this magnitude.
To have a last-minute starting QB announcement is rare, but here are a few of them in recent years: there was 2013, in which the New York Jets named Geno Smith the starting QB on Sept. 4, with the season opener just four days away. Some five years later, they made Sam Darnold the youngest Opening Day starter in NFL history on Sept. 3, with the game on Sept. 10th. And in 2011, the Redskins recognized Rex Grossman as the starter on Sept. 5 for a Sept. 11 kickoff.
So, what does this teach us? Only teams who’ve been historically inept at the quarterback position make these decisions this deep into the season. For what it’s worth, those teams went 3-0 in their respective Week 1 game… but none of them made the postseason.
And then, there’s this. Most observers are in agreement that we’re going to see Foles and Trubisky at some point this season. Here’s an intriguing stat: since 2010, there have been 64 different teams that had two quarterbacks throw for 1,000+ yards. Of the 64 teams:
— 55 of them missed the postseason
— only 2 of them made the Super Bowl (‘12 49ers and ‘15 Broncos)
— only one of them won a Super Bowl (‘15 Broncos).
So, history tells us that if we see both of them this season for sustained periods of time, it’s unlikely that we see them beyond Week 17.
But hey, all this is history. If being a Chicago Bears has taught us anything, it’s that nothing prevails past September optimism. Not even conventional wisdom.