Will Derrick Henry expose Chicago Bears run defense?

The Chicago Bears run defense is hanging on by a thread. Will Derrick Henry break the dam?

The Chicago Bears have an excellent defense, but there is a clear weakness in 2020. Whether it be the loss of Eddie Goldman, a decline from Danny Trevathan, or scheme, the Bears have been a worse run defense than in years past.

The Saints took advantage on Sunday with Alvin Kamara, who not only received for 99 yards but averaged over 5 yards per carry on the ground. The week before the Rams piled up 25 carries for 120 yards between Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson. Before that Ronald Jones had one of his best games, creating over 100 yards on 17 carries.

The offense had so many issues, and the defense has been put in a bad spot, so the issue has been tertiary to others. However, with Derrick Henry coming to town, this could be exposed.

When looking at adjusted line yards, the Titans rank first in the NFL. This is likely no surprise with Derrick Henry a line suited to run block. However, what is surprising is that while they rank 8th and 5th in power and stuffed rank, they rank higher in open field runs and second-level runs.

Second level runs are 5-10 yard runs, and open field are runs where Henry goes for 10+. In these areas, the Titans rank 3rd and 4th. So, while Henry is always good to pick up that needed yard, he has been better this year at breaking off five-yard or longer runs consistently.

Meanwhile, the Bears rank 18th in power rate, and 8th in stuffed rate. While that is not bad, they rank 23rd in second-level runs, and 24th in open field runs. This shows that while their front can win at times when they lose, runs get deep into the second level.

This is not going to be like the Bucs, where Ronald Jones sees 17 carries. This will not be like the Rams, where two backs split. It will not like Kamara with a split of receiving and running. This is Derrick Henry, for 20 or more carries, coming straight at the Chicago Bears. While these backs are putting up numbers in different ways, Henry could be in for a huge day with outrageous numbers.

Would 25 carries for 150 yards be unrealistic? Would that be a huge wake-up call for where the Bears run defense is? Or, will Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith show that they have made huge improvements over the weeks.