3 reasons to pump brakes on Mitch Trubisky extension talk

Improving to average

Trubisky has increased his stats in the last few games and nobody can deny It. However, when looking at the advanced stats, it is not like he is lighting the world on fire. The air yards are not a problem, but Trubisky has not all of the sudden became a lights out accurate passer.

Through the first four weeks of 2020, he had a completion percentage over expectations (CPOE) of -4. That means he was completing fewer passes than an average passer would. In fact, he ranked 28th in the NFL In CPOE. From the time he was benched through week 15, he has a 1.4 CPOE which is positive. Still, he ranks 15th in the NFL. For what it is is worth, Trubisky had a 1.7 CPOE in 2018 and ranked in the middle of the league.

Sure, you can argue that in the past four games the Bears have gotten a version of Trubisky similar to 2018, and we have seen that they can win with that. At the same time, the idea was never to get the 2018 version of Trubisky. The idea was that by 2020, he would be better. Instead, he regressed in 2019 and got back to his 2018 self in the past four weeks.

Over the past three years, we may have seen his floor and ceiling. His ceiling is an average QB and his floor is one of the worst in the NFL. It is fine to have an average QB on the roster, but that is not the QB you invest in when you know that is the best he has brought in four seasons.