Chicago Bears: Andy Dalton passing success under pressure

Whether Chicago Bears fans like it or not, Andy Dalton is coming to town. There is still a good, if not a very good chance that a rookie signal-caller joins the Bears in the coming month or so. Still, the Bears could be shaping up for a battle between a rookie and Dalton, or Dalton starting while the rookie waits.

Either way, we are likely preparing for Andy Dalton in 2021. While it is fair to debate whether Andy Dalton is much of an upgrade over what the Chicago Bears had at quarterback last year, we are going to break it down a bit further and see if there are hidden nuggets that could show improvement. How has Andy Dalton performed under pressure?

Percent of snaps under pressure

For what it is worth, the Dallas Cowboys offensive line was giving up pressure at about a similar rate to the Chicago Bears last year. Andy Dalton was under pressure 29.5 of the time last season, per PFF. Mitch Trubisky was under pressure just 24.9 of the time, so fans cannot use the excuse that Trubisky had a worse line.

However, Nick Foles was under pressure 35% of the time. He just so happened to face the Colts, Saints, and Rams while Cody Whitehair was banged up while Trubisky did not. Still, overall, it is fair to say that Dalton was under pressure a similar amount to what the Bears allowed last season over 16 games.

Sacks Taken

The percent of sacks taken has to be what is concerning Bears fans. Per PFF, 21.6% of the time Andy Dalton faced pressure, he was sacked in 2020. Nick Foles only took a sack 15.3% of the time, although he had many more throwaways. Mitch Trubisky was at 21.7% of sacks taken under pressure, basically the same result as Dalton last year.

What is more concerning is that this is not just a blip with a weird situation in Dallas. Here is Dalton’s sack rate under pressure by year. We will put Mitch Trubisky next to him in () for frame of reference.

2019 – 21.4  (20.3)

2018 – 16.5 (16.3)

2017 – 22.4 (22.3)

2016- 22.7

2015 – 15.2

2014 – 16.3

Over the past four years, he has hovered around that 21-22% mark, but so has Mitch Trubisky. It Is weird how similar they are when it comes to taking sacks. For a frame of reference, Carson Wentz led the league at 25.3% last season, and Ben Roethlisberger was as low as 9.9% last year.

Big time throws vs Turnover Worth Passes

Lastly, thanks to PFF, we can see the number of big-time passes that result in big plays compared to passes that are turnover-worthy. Unfortunately, we see nothing here where Dalton separates from Foles or Trubisky.

Trubisky had 4.9% big-time throws under pressure, Foles at 4.8%, and Dalton at 4.9%. Trubisky did lead turnover-worthy throws last year at 7%, to 6.4% from Foles, and 3.4% from Dalton. That could be something to hang your hat on but is a bit lower than his career marks.

For his career, Dalton averages 4.7% turnover-worthy passes. However, he also is at 6% big-time throws under pressure for his career, which is higher than what he did in 2020. For comparison, Trubisky is at 4.1% big-time throws, and 5.4% turnover-worthy plays for his career.

With that in mind, it is not a huge upgrade, but overall Dalton does turn it over less and create big plays under pressure compared to Mitch Trubisky.

Still, the league average last year was 5.9% big-time throws under pressure and 4.2% turnover-worthy passes. Compared to Dalton’s career numbers of 6% and 4.7% respectively, Dalton is at the average mark, or a bit less than the average passer under pressure in 2020.