Are Chicago Bears further away from Russell Wilson than expected?
When the Chicago Bears signed Andy Dalton, reports of their trade package for Russell Wilson leaked out. It was in a way to show the fans, hey we tried, we went all-in, and Seattle just said no. This is totally fair, and the package came off as pretty high. Reports were that they offered three first-round picks, as well as a third-round pick and two veterans.
At the time this sounded like an all-in attempt. Then, yesterday, the 49ers traded for the number three overall pick. What was the price? Number 12 overall in this draft, plus two future first-round picks and a third-round pick.
Essentially, the 49ers traded a package of picks exactly like what Chicago offered to Seattle for Wilson. They did not offer the two veterans that Chicago did, but the other difference is that Chicago picks 20th this year, and the 49ers pick 12th. Their first-round pick is more valued.
Beyond that, the 49ers’ 2022, and 2023 picks may have more value for a team with a rookie quarterback than a team that trades for Russell Wilson. Lastly, while it is speculative, the veterans very well could have been Kyle Fuller, who was cut, and Akiem Hicks, who would have been cut to fit Wilson under the cap. It may have even been Anthony Miller, who the Bears wanted to get rid of.
There is an argument that in the number three overall pick, the 49ers get a cheap quarterback, where trading for Wilson means trading for an extension to make him the highest-paid QB. Still, trading for Wilson is an absolute sure thing. We have no idea who the 49ers will pick yet, let alone how they will transition to the NFL. Teams miss all the time on evaluations. Wilson may be older, but puts you in contention immediately without question.
The reality is that the Dolphins got 3 first-round picks and a third-round pick for the number three pick. The Seahawks would not take the #3 pick, plus two veterans for Russell Wilson. That is what the Chicago Bears are dealing with here.
It is a quarterback business and quarterbacks are costly. The chance to draft one costs three firsts, so if the Chicago Bears really want Russell Wilson, then they just realized their offer of three firsts is far too low.