Is Davis Mills the sleeper QB Chicago Bears need?

Davis Mills is a wildcard entering the 2021 NFL draft. He was the highest-rated recruit coming out of the 2017 high school class. After redshirting his freshman season, he lost out to KJ Costello and sat on the bench. In 2019, Costello got injured and Mills finished as the starter. Mills went into the 2020 season ready to get a real look. Unfortunately with the COVID shortened season, Mills has now essentially just played two a little more than two half seasons.

Still, with just 438 passing attempts, he decided to enter the 2021 NFL draft. To put that into perspective, Mitch Trubisky had 572 pass attempts in his minimal college career. Below you can check out the college stats of quarterback Davis Mills.

Traits where Davis Mills can succeed in NFL

Mills comes with adequate size and velocity on his passes. He can put enough zip on far hash throws to complete a quick game to the sidelines. Davis Mills has no issue testing safties and linebackers with passes over the middle where he has to thread the needle. He works as a pretty smart quarterback and knows how to make coverage reads and quick decisions.

In the play below you can see the running back in motion flare out to the left. Mills is reading the linebacker, and he passes through #13, Mills fires to the receiver who sits in the open space.

Mills plays with good anticipation overall. In the play below he is reading the slot cornerback. He can see that his receiver has the man beat, but the safety is over the top. He cannot lead him too far, but if he puts it behind, the corner enters the scene.

These are not highlight-worthy plays, but they are chain-moving plays. Mills can roll out and work out of bootleg and play-action at times but is more of a traditional passer. He is someone who is operating a system more than being the hero who has to make all the plays.

Issues where Davis Mills must improve in NFL

Davis Mills is obviously inexperienced. It shows a lot of the time when he does not get the look or something is off from what he expects. When there is a small kink in the system, he tends to malfunction.

His biggest issue comes with pocket presence under pressure. Take a look at this third and seven below. This is another simple play, but his pocket presence costs his team. UCLA stunts from the left side and as Mills is getting ready to throw, he sees the defender come crashing in on him.

Watch the feet of Davis Mills as he throws. He opens his right foot back and squares his hips to avoid the defender beside him. The inside receiver takes the linebacker away from the middle of the field. This leaves #4 with space to run after the catch if he can beat his man.

He has a step, if Mills can lead him, he can grab the first down. Instead of a throw with anticipation that moves the chains, we see a pass that leads to a sliding grab short of the sticks.

Here is another example of pressure turning the worst from Mills. His inside receiver to the right is running a curl back to the ball to move the sticks on third down. However, UCLA blitzes and stunts.

However, this time, the right guard loses from the stunt and is pushed back into Mills view. Watch Mills feet again. They are not set at all as he sails a football over the head of his man.

These are two occurrences, but there are far too many instances of broken-down mechanics and decision-making when he does not get the look that he thought he would. Beyond that, he does not have the mobility to work outside of the box. He struggles to hang in the pocket but is not mobile enough to benefit from running.

He has starter capability, but that comes with a low floor and ceiling. He is going to need time to develop.

NFL Comparison for Davis Mills

The ceiling that was talked about with Mills would be on the Andy Dalton-Kirk Cousins tier. It may take a year or two to get there, but he could operate an NFL offense, albeit without that overarching playmaker ability.

A middle-ground for him and a more likely outcome would be similar to Drew Stanton, or Luke McCown’s type of career. He is a capable backup who can be relied on, but there is a limit in how long you can roll with him due to his ability to breakdown once teams get a read on him. Still, it leads to a long career. You could call him a Chase Daniel type with more size.

Similar NFL players in recent drafts would be Ryan Finley and Jarrett Stidham. As prospects, these three would be discussed in a similar tier coming out of college.

Would Davis Mills be a fit for the Chicago Bears?

As we get closer and closer to the NFL draft we are starting to realize it will take a trade-up to get any of the top five quarterbacks. Then, there is a debate about who is the sixth-best. Many like Kyle Trask, but Davis Mills has emerged as that potential player.

With that, it means the Bears will have to draft him in the second or third round. On one hand, It makes a lot of sense to draft him. If things go poorly with Dalton, a rookie could rejuvenate things. It would certainly buy Ryan Pace more time if Mills was drafted and showed some flash.

On the other end, the question with him is whether his ceiling is worth the development? He is going to struggle at times, and while he may start at hot, he may come down to life as teams get used to him.

Mills is the type of player who keeps them in this position of being good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to win playoff games. Still, his untapped potential combined with his arm and processing that is better than Kyle Trask, the argument for QB6 in this class is fair.