The media hype around Mac Jones has started to grow to the point where it feels as though he is a lock to be drafted by the 49ers third overall. However, if you have paid attention to the draft season for more than one year you know that this is the prime lying season and that when we all believe something, it is more than likely not going to happen.
One of the biggest reasons that Mac Jones has been tied to the 49ers is the label that he is a scheme fit for Kyle Shanahan. While that is true in some regards, it is blatantly false in others. Jones has some traits that are similar to a Kyle Shanahan offense, but overall, the offense that Jones would thrive best in is actually the style that Matt Nagy designed. Here is why.
5. Shot Gun
On the San Francisco 49ers’ run to the Super Bowl in 2019, they were one of just five teams who ran more snaps under center than they did in the shotgun. This helps when they had leads in these games, and they did run more shotgun snaps in 2020 when trailing. Still, even in games where they were losing much more, they fell from top five to eighth overall in snaps under center.
It is a minor detail, but Shanahan needs a QB to work under center, while Matt Nagy does not. Nagy ran shotgun formations in 79% of snaps in his first as a head coach, and that number dropped to 75% in 2019. The most Shanahan has gone shotgun in season in 57%.
In 2020, Nagy adjusted to Mitch Trubisky and ran more under-center plays. The number still only dropped to 64%, which is over 7% more often than the most shotgun Shanahan has ever run. Beyond that, when you take away Trubisky starts, Foles worked out of the gun 74% of the time again.
Shanahan needs a QB to work under center, but Nagy wants one comfortable in the shotgun, taking the snap and quickly reading the field.
When looking at the QBs in this year’s class Trey Lance ran under 30% of the time, Zach Wilson 10%, Justin Fields 7%, and Mac Jones just 2%.
Yes, every QB ran more out of the shotgun, but if any QB is ready for a Shanahan offense, it is Lance, and if any is ready for a Nagy offense, it is Mac Jones. You could argue that Fields would be fine adjusting to the Nagy offense as well. Still, all of a sudden it does feel as though Jones may not be this perfect fit for pick 3 when he has the least experience under the center of the bunch. It also feels like if any quarterback could jump right into a Matt Nagy offense, it mat be Jones.