Can Chicago Bears trade up for QB without losing future 1st round pick?
The Chicago Bears are going to be one of a few teams interested in whichever quarterback falls from the top three picks. Rumors are increasing that pick four and five may not be moved, and the Miami Dolphins already traded up to six, although they have discussed trading down.
Still, it is starting to be more likely that two of the big five quarterbacks will be there at pick seven and potentially even later. While the Chicago Bears would need a haul to get to four getting to eight through 11 is more navigable for them.
In fact, there may be a chance that Ryan Pace can pull that off without losing a future first-round pick.
The reality is that Pace has eight picks this year, and the Bears may be looking to unload some of those picks to move up. According to the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, their pick at number 20 overall is worth 850 points. Picks 8-12 are worth 1200-1400. Not every team uses this, but most do and most trades come in somewhere along this scale, although supply and demand drive a market.
So, the Bears will likely need to find 350-550 points to get to where they could be drafting a future quarterback. According to the draft value chart, their second-round pick is worth 380 points. That may not get them into the top ten, but it may get them to number 12 or higher alone.
Pace also has three sixth-round picks, the highest being worth about 30 points. Pick 20, 52, and 164 get the Chicago Bears 1,260 points. This would still leave the Bears with a pick in the third and fifth round this year with multiple sixths as well. They obviously do not touch future picks as well, which is a big win.
Could the Chicago Bears throw in Anthony Miller?
Of course, if the Bears lose a second-round pick, and draft a QB with their first, it makes it harder to find a slot option to replace Anthony Miller. Still, with corner and receiver being the big pressing needs, the Bears would likely hit those in the third and fifth round and then swing on lineman again on day three.
Beyond that, while the Bears may be able to get to pick 10 with their three picks this year, they could go above and beyond with Anthony Miller. Miller has been on the trade block and realistically would fetch the Bears somewhere near a fourth-round pick. Miller is still cheap and could net whoever trades for a comp pick down the line anyways.
Still, the value of the pick that Miller would get would be about 100 points on the trade chart. Miller, pick 20, 52, and 164 would get them much closer to 1,400 in value, and once again would not hurt their future assets.
The Chicago Bears are going to try to move up, as Pace has always been aggressive in that way. The question is whether he overpays and whether he will mortgage the future to do so. If a quarterback does fall, he may not have to do that.