Identifying top 20 locks in 2021 NFL Draft

You hear it all the time when discussing draft prospects. Oh he will not be there, or he will be long gone by the Chicago Bears pick. Another one is that this player is a lock for the top 5, 10, 20. By the end of the NFL Draft cycle, there are 40 locks for the top 20, 50 locks for the first round, and 100 locks for the top 50.

With the Chicago Bears, they need to know who the top 20 locks are. Picking at 20, if they list out their top 20 locks, they will be sure to get one of their top players. With the 2021 NFL Draft getting closer, and closer we are starting to figure out who is elite, and who enough questions to potentially fall out of the top 20.

This post will go position by position to look into who will absolutely not be there at pick 20. How many locks will be gone?

Quarterbacks

We know that five quarterbacks are going to be gone by pick 20 now. We do not know the order, but it is fair to say that even if Mac Jones is not the number three pick, there is enough buzz around him that he will not fall to 20. The same can be said for Justin Fields and Trey Lance. Even falls for them would end around pick nine or ten in this draft.

It is clear that no other QB will go high, so we can lock in five.

Running back

If Najee Harris or Travis Etienne were gone by pick 20, it would really help Chicago. However, it is hard to say either is a lock when an RB did not go top 20 in the past two seasons, with Josh Jacobs and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Neither of these is locks.

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle will be gone by pick 20. I do not think many will debate that. While size is a question for Smith, that may bump him out of the top ten, but not much lower. For Waddle, a leg injury could drop him, but we know speed always goes high, and Waddle has that.

Beyond them, Rashad Bateman is hardly a lock for the top 20, and it is hard to find another WR who can make the case. Perhaps Terrace Marshall or Kadrius Toney, but both would be drafted higher than expected.

3 WRs + 5 QBs get us 8 locks.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts will not fall past eight, let alone all the way to 20. Heck, he may not fall past four. Beyond that, a tight end may not go in the first round.

1 TE gets us to 9 locks

Offensive Line

We can firmly say that Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater will be gone by 10, but what about the rest? Most mocks seem to see Alijah Vera-Tucker, and Christian Darrisaw as the next two gone. Does either make it to 20? Unlikely. However, by pushing four tackles into the top 20, the rest will need a strong case to be considered a lock. Teven Jenkins, Liam Eichenberg, Alex Leatherwood, and others have enough questions as to where we will cap it at four locks for now.

4 OL gets us to 13 locks on offense.

Defensive Line

Let’s hit edges and interior. Christian Barmore is the only interior man with a chance to be in the top 20. A chance is not a lock, though. What about Jaelen Phillips, Gregory Rousseau, Jayson Oweh, Azeez Ojulari, and Kwity Paye?

Phillips has injury questions while Oweh has production concerns. Rousseau tested as a poor athlete, which leaves Ojulari and Paye as potential top 20 locks. We could assume one, but it is tough to say for sure. Let’s keep these names in mind, and check back later.

Linebacker

Many say that Micah Parsons is better than Roquan Smith. That is for debate at a later time, but that does mean that one team will pounce well before 20 for him. Zaven Collins will go first round but may fall to 20. He looks like Tremaine Edmunds, but is not quite as athletic and not from a school like VT. Even then, Edmunds went around 15. Collins is right on the border, but not a lock.

This leaves Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Jamin Davis. JOK could very well be gone by 20, but he is a bit position-less and does not have the size that Isaiah Simmons did last season. Davis is getting the first-round buzz but is a riser from one season and a nice pro day. Round one sure, top twenty, no.

If Parsons is the only lock we get to 14 so far.

Secondary

Patrick Surtain is a lock to be gone by pick 20. After an elite Pro Day, combined with athletic bloodlines and great tape, Jaycee Horn is going to be gone as well. The injury to Caleb Farley may put him in play, and I have seen Greg Newsome mocked to Chicago enough to know he could be in play.

At safety, Trevon Moehrig is likely to be first drafted, but that may not come until after 20. He is close, and will be considered, but is not a lock.

With two cornerbacks, we have 16 locks for the 20 picks. They are

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Zach Wilson
3. Justin Fields
4. Trey Lance
5. Mac Jones
6. Ja’Marr Chase
7. Devonta Smith
8. Jaylen Waddle
9. Kyle Pitts
10. Penei Sewell
11. Rashawn Slater
12. Christian Darrisaw
13. Alijah Vera-Tucker
14. Micah Parsons
15. Patrick Surtain
16. Jaycee Horn

The closest players to being locks would be

Teven Jenkins, Christain Barmore, Gregory Rosseau, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Zaven Collins, Greg Newsome, Caleb Farley, Trevon Moehrig, Kwity Paye

What do you think? Should any of these names be considered locks, or will anyone in that 16 fall out of the top 20?