Is pick 20 too high for Kadarius Toney in 2021 NFL draft?

One player that has increasingly been getting mocked to the Chicago Bears in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft is Kadarius Toney. This makes sense considering the teams need at wide receiver. Specifically, the Bears have been involved in trade rumors including Anthony Miller. Losing Miller would increase the need not only for a wide receiver but a slot player.

By many accounts, Toney may not be the first receiver off the board, but as a slot-only player, he would be one of the first to get drafted. Beyond that, as media outlets have talked to more teams, word has gotten out that Toney is rated higher in NFL circles than outside. With that in mind, he would likely be in the range to go at pick 20.

However, while the NFL is high on Toney, is 20 a bit rich? Especially for a team like the Chicago Bears.

Toney broke out in his senior year and put up 70 receptions for 984 yards. That is great but is a far cry from the first three years of his career when he had 50 catches for 606 yards in three seasons combined.

It is one thing to have one breakout season due to extenuating circumstances but the reality is that Toney was just not effective until he was older than most of his competition. Looking back to the 2018 NFL draft that was a question about the game of Anthony Miller coming out of school.

Most receivers who break out in the NFL had at least one season before they became a senior where they flashed upside.

When looking at other receivers in this range, Toney is about eight months older than Rashad Bateman, a full year older than Elijah Moore, and nearly two years older than Rondale Moore and Terrace Marshall. When these receivers turn 22 their ceiling is going be much higher than where Toney currently is, and all of them produced at a younger age.

Beyond that is how raw he is as a route runner. He ran almost all of his routes out of the slot, and you can say that even then they were hardly routes. Toney was given drag routes and short-breaking routes to get him the ball underneath. His depth of target was 7.7 yards downfield. For comparison Terrace Marshall was at 9.5, and Elijah Moore at 10.5.

To be fair to Toney, he is excellent with the ball in his hands, and he is an outstanding athlete.

The best NFL comparison for Kadarius Toney may be Antwaan Randle-El, another former quarterback who was a star athlete, and despite being raw, was schemed enough touches to be a successful NFL player.

Kadarius Toney may have a lower floor than some prospects but has as high of a ceiling as anyone. The question is whether he can hit that ceiling and how that can be unlocked.

It makes a lot of sense that the Chicago Bears would like a slot receiver who is explosive with the ball in his hands. Matt Nagy is all about the short pass and letting his gadget players work. Toney would be added to his collection.

Still, at pick 20, there are enough questions around his status as a prospect that it would feel a bit rich. While guys like Bateman or Marshall may not be around, those two can also play the slot but have upside as true outside wide receivers, where Toney is very likely limited to his slot and gadget role.

If the Bears traded back and still liked Toney, it would be fine, but with the variety of needs, and role he plays, there are swings at a higher floor and a potentially higher ceiling as well in the top 20.