The Chicago Bears traded up nine spots to select a future franchise quarterback
Go ahead and screenshot this somewhere to keep records of what I am about to say. Justin Fields will be the best quarterback the Chicago Bears have had barring any severe injuries. Alright, maybe that is not as bold of a take as it sounds seeing how bad this team has been at quarterback. However, when it is all said and done, Justin Fields will be no worse than the second-best quarterback of this draft class. He will become a true, franchise quarterback for the Bears.
This alone makes whatever the cost of this trade worth it — even if the “numbers” don’t add up. However, let’s find out just how close in value this trade came out to be for Ryan Pace. We will look at two separate draft value charts and see just how good or bad this trade was.
The easy part here is the pick the Bears received from the Giants. If we look at the DraftTek value chart developed by Rich Hill and the old Jimmy Johnson model, the 11th-overall pick has a value of 358 (1,250 – Johnson Model). Essentially, Ryan Pace will want to have given up the same amount, slightly more or slightly less in value with the picks he sent to the Giants. Let’s see how he did.
The 20th-overall pick has a value of 269 (850). This is a difference of 89 points. Now, the 2021 fifth-round pick is worth nine (24). If we add the nine points to the 269, we are now at a total of 278 (874). This is obviously why the future picks come into play. The thing is, future picks are hard to actually grade. For example, the first-overall pick in the draft is worth 1,000 (3,000) and the last pick in the first round (32nd-overall) is only worth 184 (590). As you can see, that’s a big difference.
Some believe you should take the last pick in the round and add that value to the future pick. I do not agree with this methodology. I understand that’s the absolute worst value a team could receive, but I like to put a bit of speculation into my analysis. Since I don’t predict the Bears being the worst team in the NFL in 2021, nor do I believe they will be the best team, I like the idea of adding the values together and dividing for an average.
In this case, the 2022 First-Round pick would be worth around 592 (1,795) and the 2022 Fourth-Round pick would be worth 24 (81) points. How did Ryan Pace do then? From strictly a value standpoint, based on the way I calculate future picks, Ryan Pace gave up 625 (2,750) points in draft capital, and only received 358 (1,250) in draft capital. As you can see, Pace gave up more than he received, but that is what always happens when trading up in the first round.
As long as Justin Fields turns out to be the player I expect him to be, then these values mean very little and Ryan Pace will “win” this trade. Don’t forget I value the future picks more than most. If we use the philosophy of the last pick in the round is the value, then the numbers are much closer — Pace gave away 476 (1,509) points compared to getting back 358 (1,250) points. The numbers do not agree, but Ryan Pace made the right move here.