Chicago Bears: Allen Robinson advanced stats review

While you can look at the raw numbers and see that Allen Robinson is a productive wide receiver, those numbers do not quite do him justice. Considering the quarterback play and other surrounding issues on the Chicago Bears that he has dealt with, Robinson can be described as better than his numbers.

Using some advanced stats we can dig a bit deeper and try to isolate his play. Last season 42 NFL wide receivers had 90 targets. We are going to use this group of receivers to compare advanced stats from Robinson’s 2020 season.

Yards Per Route Run

This is essentially just a measure of how efficient you are with your playing time. Robinson ranks 12th in NFL in yards per route run, creating over 2 yards per route. Only 15 players finished over 2 this season.

The names above him YPRR are Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Corey Davis, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, DJ Moore, Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, Cole Beasley, and DK Metcalf. Not a bad group of players to be included with.

Yards After the Catch Per Reception

Bringing value after the catch with the ball in your hands goes a long way and is a testament to the individual being able to create. This has not been where Robinson shines, though. Of the 42, he ranks 35th in YAC/R with 3.2. For reference, A.J. Brown had 6.2, D.J. Moore had 5.9, and Cooper Kupp had 5.8. These three led the league.

To be fair to Robinson, he actually ranks 11th in missed tackles forced, though. So, the lack of YAC can come down to not creating after forcing missed tackles, or overall the volume that he gets being so high and the types of routes and ball placement around him not being conducive to YAC chances.

Still, when we look at NextGenStats, Robinson has a 0.4 expected yards after the catch, which means he gets 0.4 more yards after the catch than expected. It does show that he is being held back a bit and not set up for YAC, but also that he is not creating much more than he is expected. This is not the best attribute of his game.

Average Depth of Target

Robinson has an average depth of target of 10.2. That is 25th in the NFL. For reference, Calvin Ridley is at 15.2, while JuJu Smith-Schuster was down at 6. Overall, Robinson ranks 20th in deep yards, and 17th in yards per route run on deep targets. He is efficient when the ball is thrown deep to him, but that is not quite his game either.

Drop Rate

If deep balls and creating after the catch are not where he is elite, what does he do best? Catch the ball consistently. Robinson had 1 drop, which is tied for best in the league with over 90 targets. He did rank 3rd in drop rate, though, as Hopkins and Adams had the same number of drops on slightly more opportunity. Still, being up with Hopkins, and Adams is always where you want to be.

For reference, Jerry Jeudy, Nelson Agholor, and Diontae Johnson led this group with with 18.8, 15.8, and 13.7% rates respectively.

Contested Catches

Not only is Robinson not dropping balls, he is hauling in the tough ones. Robinson leads the NFL in contested catch targets with 49, but also leads the group with 21. He is tied with Devante Parker for the most contested catches in the NFL.

However, because he is forced into so many more contested catch attempts, his contested catch rate is actually pretty low. He ranks 32nd in contested catch rate. Still, only five wide receivers in the league had over 30 contested catch targets, and Robinson had 49.

First Downs

Big plays are great, but if you can move the chains on key plays, you have legitimate value in the NFL. Allen Robinson ranked fourth in the NFL last season in first down receptions behind just Diggs, Adams, and Hopkins. The Bears rely on him to move the chains.