Expectations for Cole Kmet in year two with Chicago Bears
Last year around this time we looked into realistic potential outcomes for the rookie season of Cole Kmet with the Chicago Bears. It turned out that Kmet hit about the threshold that we were expecting him to, and is he right in range with your average rookie season tight end.
So, what about year two? Looking through the same groups of players, we will find the second years of NFL tight ends since 2011 and see what they typically produce.
Overall
Overall, 85 tight ends who were drafted since 2011 played in over eight games during their second NFL season. Those tight ends were targeted on average 50.6 times for 33.1 receptions. On average they saw 379 and 2.9 touchdowns.
To be fair, this is a much wider range than we dealt with during his rookie season. The majority of rookie tight ends had 30 catches or less. Jimmy Graham and Ron Gronkowski had over 90 during their second season. 14 tight ends went over 60 catches, but 17 went under 30 catches. There is a big gap, and we see yards can range anywhere from 320 to 1,300.
While rookie tight ends struggle across the board, second-year tight ends can go in a lot of different directions.
Top 100 picks
Last year when we zoomed in on just top 100 picks we saw a bit of a better range to look into. It did raise the average up a bit to 66.6 targets, 44.4 catches, and 516 yards on 4 touchdowns.
Some of the players taken after pick 100 did drop the average a bit.
Top 50 picks
Considering Kmet went top 50, which is better than the top 100, we can look into how they did in their second season. On average we saw 74.8 targets, 49 catches for 584 yards, and five touchdowns. If you take out Rob Gronkowski, you can get a bit of a better range. From a yardage standpoint, second-round picks will range from 320 to 723 yards.
When you take Gronk out of the average data, it goes down to 68.3 targets, for 44 catches, 514 yards, and 4 touchdowns.
Just second-round picks
Let’s cut out the first-round picks, we know that Kmet was not one. This once again includes Rob Gronkowski, but we see on average that second round 74 targets, 49 catches, 588 yards, and five touchdowns.
When we take out Gronk the number goes to 65 targets for 42 catches, 486 yards, and four touchdowns.
Top 25 outcomes
Top 25 outcomes obviously include some lofty comparisons, but on average, the top 25 tight ends saw 89 targets, 59 receptions, 715 yards, and six touchdowns in their second season. That would be an excellent outcome for Cole Kmet.
Next. 5 comparisons to Cole Kmet rookie season. dark
Overall
Overall, second-year tight ends would expect to see an average of 51-68 targets. That would go for 33-45 catches, and 350-540 yards, and somewhere between two and four touchdowns. We are not quite shooting for the Rob Gronkowski breakout here, but this would be a nice step for a second season and average step as well.
Kmet would see an increase in about 5-17 catches, 100-300 yards, and two touchdowns from his rookie season. That would be a steady progression from a year ago.